Here's what is known with certainty:
Yesterday, US Aircraft Carrier CVN-77 George H.W. Bush crossed the Strait of Gibraltar [5].
[6]
This was largely expected, and the path of aircraft carrier into the Mediterranean was known well in advance [7]. As of late last week, this is what was known about the distribution of US naval forces around the world (Source: Stratfor [8]).
[9]
Here's what is not known with certainty:
It is not known if CVN-77 will continue to its scheduled final waypoint, the Arabian Gulf, or make a detour into the Black Sea.
It is also not known if as some suggested earlier on Twitter, and completely without confirmation, that a state of high alert was declared on the carrier.
#BreakingNews [10] #US [11] Navy USS George Bush nuclear aircraft carrier declares high alert in the #Mediterranean [12]. #Syria [13] #Ukraine [14] #Russia [15]
— Rami (@RamiAlLolah) March 1, 2014 [16]
Once again, this rumor has seen zero confirmation anywhere else so we assume it is false.
It is not known is if the report by Sevastopol News [17]that the two US warships have already crossed the bosphorus and would arrive at the Crimean port shortly is real or fake. From the website [17]:
The U.S. Navy will arrive in Sevastopol in four hours? As we have just learned from unofficial sources in the Naval Forces of Ukraine, headed for the shores of Sevastopol at full speed, are two ships of the United States Navy.
According to preliminary information, two destroyers carrier battle groups have already passed the Bosphorus.
Recall that part of the Black Sea Fleet warships are now off the coast of Sochi. Yesterday, a large landing ship "Kaliningrad" from the Baltic Fleet entered the Black Sea. And as we have previously reported, to Sevastopol is returning the Ukrainian frigate "Hetman Sahaidachny."
There has been no official comment.
Of the above, the most important unknown is whether indeed the US is entering the black sea in what would be a direct confrontation with the Russian fleet. Considering the earlier report of the defection of the Ukranian navy head, this would not be surprising as the US would certainly need naval presence in the waters close to the Crimean, especially following the report that the Crimean PM just announced [18]the creation of a regional - i..e, non-Ukraine - navy.
Those who wish to do so can keep track of the status of CVN-77 George H.W. Bush on its facebook page located here [19].
Alternatively, a good place to keep track of who crosses in and out of the Black Sea is the Bosphorus Naval News [20].