The world and their pet rabbit was convinced yesterday that today's jobs number was both the most-important-number-in-the-world and didn't matter (because whether it beat or missed it was bullish for stocks). Seconds after the release that appeared to be true as JPY instantly dragged stocks to record highs (and the USD up and bonds and gold down). However, trumped by confirmation that the taper is continuing, Gazprom warnings, Lavrov threats, and finally reports of a Russian invasion, stocks leaked lower to Tuesday's ramp-day closing levels. Thanks to some last-minute JPY and VIX banging, S&P closed green for the 15th of last 16 NFPs. Despite intraday volatility, the USD ended the week unchanged, gold +1%, silver -1.5% and Treasuries +14bps or so (its worst week in 6 months!). Credit markets continue to be non-believers (with the high-yield bond ETF plunging this week). Critically, after last night's default in China, Iron Ore and Copper futures were crushed and we suspect Sunday night's Asia open could see more fireworks.
So some see today's jobs data as good news (NFP beat) which is bad news as it encourages moar taper... sell bonds, sell gold, buy USD and it took a little for stocks to catch up that in fact this is dismal job growth and hoping that we have reached escape velocity is a dream... and this print won't allow the Fed to save the day if we tumble on the back of some exogenous event...
Only one thing mattered today to keep the "common knowledge" meme alive - a green close on a payrolls Friday no matter waht was critical... JPY was tired having been abused all week... so VIX, the old-whipping-boy of market-manipulating muppets, was smashed lower into the close just perfectly to get the S&P 500 cash index to close green by the smallest margin...
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Now tell us this - some talking head claimed that everyone is hedged? and that's the ammo for a rmap higher... if everyone is hedged then who the fuck was selling the crap out of vol into the close today?
For 2014, Gold and Silver remain the winners, The USD and HY Credit the losers...
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High-beta has had a tough couple of days...the S&P has closed higher on a jobs Friday 15 of the last 16 times... as we were saved in th elast few minutes...
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And the MoMo names suffered the last 2 days...
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But Trannies just were on fire on the week...
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Healthcare (well Biotechs) continues to lead the year but Financials were th ebig winners this week (up over 3%)...
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Treasuries were banged higher in yield all week...
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and even as stocks fell on Friday to end the worst week in 6 months...
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Credit markets are not as exuberant as stocks...
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While the USDollar ended the week unchanged (ramping back on the NFP print) - it is clear from the chart below what currenies were in charge this week (AUD up, JPY down)...
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And so AUDJPY ran the show in stocks...
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Commodities were a mixed bag despite the UNCH of the dollar... copper crushed on China and gold bid as fear remains about Ukraine...
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Interestingly, "Most shorted" stocks ended the week -0.6% as the massive squeze at the start of the week gave way as "most shorted" stocks sold off dramatically more than the broad market...
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Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Iron Ore and Copper collapsing as credit fears unwind in China...
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Bonus Bonus Chart: Seems like the NFIB "promises" to raise compensation were worthless...
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