When we left China last night, it was all shits and giggles that bad news is great news and a Chinese stimulus plan will be here any minute to save the day. Having realized the sad fact that is not going to happen (as we explained here most recently [9]) and the specter of banks runs looming [10], this evening's session has seen property developer stocks tumble - retracing all of last night's losses - the Yuan plunges by the most in a week back above 6.2150. Copper is holding in for now at the magic $300 level but corporate bond prices are falling once again (worst run in 4 months).
The Yuan is dumping at its fastest rate in a week...erasing all the hope-strewn gains from yesterday
[11]
Property Developers are taking it on the chin...
[12]
And it's no wonder, as Bloomberg notes...
Chinese developers' gross margins declined by a weighted average 294 bps last year.
Most developers have forecast a recovery. Further declines in prices could present a threat.
...
Chinese developers that have reported 2013 results have set an average 2014 sales growth target of 16%, about half last year's 30% rate. This is likely recognition of a need for better inventory management and of a more challenging sales environment. Developers will also probably curb construction because of slowdowns in some tier two and three cities.
...
Longfor Properties summed up the attitude among major Chinese and Hong Kong property developers in its company filings... ."In 2014, the Group's key operating focus will be inventory clearance and cost control... For the coming 6-12 months period, we wil strive to reduce the leve of unsold inventory, hereby gradually improving our sale through rate."
But apart from that... China's fixed and the world economy will be back to normal as soon as the US weather clears up...