As if there was any surprise that Yellen was fundamentally an uber dove, she just confirmed it. Here are the key highlights from her speech from Bloomberg.
- YELLEN SEES `CONSIDERABLE SLACK' IN ECONOMY, LABOR MARKET
- YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT
- YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY, JOB MARKET `ARE NOT BACK TO NORMAL HEALTH'
- YELLEN SAYS FED SHORT OF REACHING EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS
- YELLEN SAYS POST-CRISIS LABOR MARKET STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
- YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES ITS 2% INFLATION GOAL `VERY SERIOUSLY'
- YELLEN SAYS DECLINE IN JOBLESS `GRADUAL BUT REMARKABLY STEADY'
- YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY NEEDS EXTRAORDINARY SUPPORT FOR `SOME TIME'
And more from BBG:
- Yellen says that despite steady progress, there’s no doubt “that the economy and the job market are not back to normal health.”
- Fed’s “extraordinary commitment” to help economy recover “is still needed and will be for some time,” Yellen said in a speech at 8:55am local time in Chicago; “I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policymakers at the Fed”
- Tapering is “not a lessening of this commitment”
- Fed is “still considerably short” of full employment and price stability
- FOMC estimates unemployment rate consistent with full employment is 5.2%-5.6%, well below 6.7% unemployment rate for Feb.
- Inflation is well below 2% long-term goal
- It’s appropriate for Fed to continue providing “substantial help” to labor market, without adding to inflation risks, because of signs of considerable slack in economy
- Decline in unemployment rate hasn’t helped raise wages for workers
- Job market is in some ways tougher now than in any recession
- Long-term unemployed face big challenges; research shows employers are less willing to hire them
- There’s hope significant share of long-term unemployed will benefit from stronger labor market
- Significant amount of decline in participation during recovery appears to be due to slack, a sign that Fed’s help can still be effective
- Surveys show consumers and owners of small- and medium-sized businesses remain cautious about strength, durability of recovery
And the punchlines:
- Numbers of people trying to find work for more than 6 mos. or a yr are higher now than any time since records began
- Lower participation rate may mean 6.7% unemployment rate is overstating progress made in labor market
- Pool of 7m people who work part time and want full-time jobs is much larger than should be expected at 6.7% unemployment rate; this is sign that labor conditions are worse than unemployment rate indicates
Gee: who would have thought that the employment data used for Obama propganda purposes does not suddenly suit the Fed, whose Russell 200,000 target is in jeopardy of falling short.
And sure enough, the only thing that matters for algos is that their interpretation of Yellen's rehash of the same comments heard thousands of times already, is that more stimulus from the Fed, i.e., the long-awaited untaper, may be just around the corner. And stocks surge because the Chairmanwoman just admitted the economy is, gasp, weaker than expected.
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Behold the great and powerful Oz...
Yellen on the big screens at Chicago community reinvestment conference pic.twitter.com/Q7lsOYgLye [7]
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) March 31, 2014 [8]