The 2nd class data point, that quickly became the darling of the algo pumpers when it beat expectations by a record last month, has tumbled back to a less exuberant reality and missed expectations by the most in 7 months. Printing at 55.5 (vs 56.0 exp.) the index is still in expansion mode but factory jobs and factory orders sub-indices both fell...
- *MARKIT U.S. FACTORY ORDERS INDEX DECLINES TO 58.1 FROM 59.6
- *MARKIT U.S. FACTORY JOBS INDEX GREW AT SLOWER PACE IN MARCH
[4]
From the report [5]:
March data indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector remained on a solid growth footing, with output levels and new business volumes both rising sharply. The latest increase in new work was slower than in the previous month, but still the second-fastest since May 2010. Meanwhile, the rate of production growth was little-changed from the near three-year high recorded in February. Survey respondents commented on a combination of improving underlying demand and a catch-up effect following the weather-related slowdown seen earlier in the year.
And the commentary which this time "blames" the improvement in the weather:
March data indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector remained on a solid growth footing, with output levels and new business volumes both rising sharply. The latest increase in new work was slower than in the previous month, but still the second-fastest since May 2010. Meanwhile, the rate of production growth was little-changed from the near three-year high recorded in February. Survey respondents commented on a combination of improving underlying demand and a catch-up effect following the weather-related slowdown seen earlier in the year.
Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
“The fall in the composite Manufacturing PMI masks the ongoing resilience of output, new orders and employment growth, all of which continued to rise at historically strong rates in March. That’s because the PMI also includes a measure of supplier delivery times, which dragged the PMI down but only because deliveries were quicker as a result of improved weather.
“The survey indicates that factory output growth has picked up again after the weather-related disruptions seen at the start of the year, presenting policymakers with an encouraging picture of a healthy goods-producing sector that is generating jobs at the rate of 15-20,000 per month.
“With warehouse inventories falling, in many cases due to sales outstripping production, factories look set to continue to expand capacity in coming months, taking on more staff and boosting business investment.”
So... bad weather last month led to a record high PMI, and the weather improvement in March led to a decline. Got it.