ADP employment change missed for the 4th month in a row, printing at 191k vs 195k expected. 191k is the average level of the last two years so the trend is not improving and we suggest that this is not enough to move the scale of the taper or un-taper decision for anyone ahead of NFP. On a side note none other than Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna was the highest estimate economist at a remarkable 275k - missing by a confidence-shattering 4 standard deviations.
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Joe "The Outlier" Lavorgna:
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Of course, the biggest irony is that people still take this report seriously. As we reported moments before the ADP release:
ADP to revise previous higher, since all it does is track NFP with a 1 month delay
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 2, 2014 [5]
And sure enough, following the NFP revision higher, ADP also revised its February data from 139K to 178K. Before:
And after:
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And while the ADP data integrity is absolute garbage, here it is for those who actually do care about goalseeked propaganda:
So how did ADP justify the fact that they were 28% off in the February number? Deep winter slumber. No, relaly.
Goods-producing employment rose by 28,000 jobs in March, slightly faster than an upwardly revised pace of 25,000 in February. Most of the gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month; compared to an average of 16,000 during the prior three months. Manufacturers added 5,000 jobs in March, the same as February.
Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in March, up from the upwardly revised 153,000 in February. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 53,000 jobs, slightly more than the 49,000 in February. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 36,000, about equal to the 37,000 jobs added in February. The 5,000 new jobs in financial activities mark the strongest pace of growth in the industry since November 2013.
"The 191,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in March is slightly above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Hopefully, this could be a sign there is more growth to come.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is coming out from its deep winter slumber. Job gains are consistent with the pace prior to the brutal winter. The gains are broad based across industries and business size classes. Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”
And some more worthless charts:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
And a worthless infographic.
