In a repeat of last quarter [5], moments ago Twitter just reported strong earnings that beat expectations across the board, and guided higher:
- Q1 revenue of $250.5 million, beating estimates of $241.5 million
- Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.00, beating estimates of ($0.03)
- Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, down from $45 million a quarter ago
- Sees Q1 revenue of $270-$280 million
- Sees 2014 full year revenue of $1.2 - $1.25 billion
In other words everything was great, with TWTR beating and the stock should be soaring right? Apparently, like last quarter, no.
Because the real pain is once again in the user data. To be sure, the stock was briefly higher until the algos scanned the earnings slidedeck and saw that TWTR had 255 million average monthly users, up just 25%, compared to growth of 39% and 30% in the last two quarters. Oops.
[6]
Just 3 million monthly active users added in the US in 1 quarter and 14 million in the entire world added in the quarter, missing again and well below the nearly 17 milion additions expected to a total 257MM.
Not pretty was the chart showing ad revenue per 1000 timeline views: at $1.44, it was also below the $1.49 achieved in the last quarter, although there may be a seasonal component here.
[7]
But the ugliest chart by far, was the one showing timeline view/MAU, which is TWTR's adopted methodology to sell advertising space. Barely changed for worldwide views/MAU at 614 from 613 in Q4, down in international and modestly higher sequentially in the US, all three metrics were solidly down year over year.
[8]
And a bonus table from the company's selected financials with the troubling data highlighted:
[9]
Forget growth, Twitter now appears to have a major timeline view monetization problem which appears to be in broad decline.
End result: stock just dropped to new lifetime lows!
[10]
Slidedeck Source [11]