From January 3rd...
Goldman: "We forecast the S&P 500 will end 2014 at 1900 (+3%)"
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 3, 2014 [3]
Mission Accomplished (8 months early)
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The level was inevitable we assume - given it's a Tuesday but bonds and JPY are not supoortive at all...
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Bear in mind this 1,900 target was originally for 2015... [7] (and published in April 2013...)
The obligatory pretty charts and tables:
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There is, of course, a caveat. Namely, "we may be wrong about everything if things don't quite turn out as the central bankers want them to"
A disappointing economic recovery would be the main risk to our forecasts. Our forecasts are based on our economists’ forecasts of global growth accelerating from 3.0% in 2012 to 3.3% in 2013 and further to an above 4% pace from 2014 through 2016. Our alternative scenarios suggest that widely held concerns about margins and valuations not being truly cheap can be addressed without destroying the case for equities. However we judge markets to be roughly fairly priced for the current economic environment and therefore returns are unlikely to materialize on a sustained basis unless the economic recovery continues. Our discussion of risks focuses on the downside as the returns in our central scenario are already very attractive. However, there are clearly also upside risks, with a stronger economic recovery than we forecast being the most obvious.
Well, it seems extremely disappointing macro data was not a problem at all.