Given that zero economists surveyed expected any further QQE in this May BoJ statement [6], the market's positive knee-jerk reaction to the "unchanged" nature is odd:
- *BOJ RETAINS PLAN FOR 60T-70T YEN ANNUAL RISE IN MONETARY BASE (coz it's working so well)
- *BOJ SEES DECLINE IN DEMAND AFTER SALES TAX HIKE (whocouldanode?)
- *BOJ SAYS EASING IS HAVING INTENDED IMPACT ON ECONOMY (crushing consumer through increasingly expensive import costs?)
The excitement must be based on them saying that "exports have leveled off more or less" and the economy is "recovering moderately." One can't help but feel like this run-stop pop will be faded very quickly... as hope is pushed to July for moar QQE.
Bloomberg Survey - When do you expect the BoJ to expand moentary stimulus?
- May - 0%
- June - 6%
- July - 38%
- Aug - 0%
- Sept - 3%
- Oct 7th - 3%
- Oct 31st - 25%
- Jan 2015 - 3%
- Apr 2015 or later - 3%
- Never - 16%
The reaction...
[7]
Full statement:
k140521a [8]