As homeownership rates tumble, perhaps it is not just the stagnation of income or piling up of 'other debts' disabling any organic buying frenzy; perhaps, as Bloomberg breaks down [3], it is the realization that real-estate is nothing less than another boom-bust roller-coaster ride. ??When so much wealth is tied up in one asset, the risk -- or stability -- of a local market can mean a lot to a homeowner and Bloomberg has quantified [3] the 'riskiest' (and most stable) home markets in America... not Vegas, not Phoenix, and not LA...
[4]
And the stablest real estate markets?
5. Raleigh, North Carolina
Risk of loss: 9%
Worst year: -5% (July 1981 - June 1982)
4. Nashville, Tennessee
Risk of loss: 9%
Worst year: -4% (July 2010 - June 2011)
3. Louisville-Jefferson County, Kentucky
Risk of loss: 3%
Worst year: -3% (April 1981 - March 1982)
2. Pittsburgh
Risk of loss: 0%
Worst year: -7% (July 1980 - June 1981)
1. Buffalo, New York
Risk of loss: 0%
Worst year: -4% (July 1994 - June 1995)
Methodology: For each of the 50 largest housing markets, Zillow.com analyzed average home prices over 117 rolling five-year periods since 1979, as far back as reliable data go. The “risk of loss” is the percentage of those periods that created negative returns for homeowners. In the case of ties between markets, those with the bigger drop in their worst years were ranked as riskier.
