Today's epic catch-up in ADP jobs data (nicely extrapolated off the back of last month's NFP) is the biggest beat since Dec 2012 and biggest gain in jobs since Nov 2012, printing at 281K, up from 179K, and smashing expectations of 205K - in fact the number came above the highest estimate of 250K. While ISMs and PMIs are missing expectations - and notably small businesses in those surveys saying they are not seeing benefits - ADP claims that small businesses gained the most jobs. Of course, we assume the seasonal adjustments had nothing to do with that: from biggest miss in 4 months to biggest beat in 21 months, which is supposedly, normal.
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Spot the seasonally-adjusted outlier (remember ADP does not report actual, unadjusted data):
Where the jobs supposedly were: according to ADP, June saw the most construction jobs added since February of 2006. Somehow, we seriously doubt this.
Comparison to the NFP data which ADP today was meant to merely catch up to:
The breakdown from the report:
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It is somewhat ironic that small businesses added 117K jobs when ISM said small business were not happy with the employment picture and the outlook was the worst in 2014. At this point, however, nobody cares about data aligning between various "services."
Here is what ADP had to say:
Goods-producing employment rose by 51,000 jobs in June, up from 31,000 jobs gained in May. The construction industry added 36,000 jobs over the month, more than double the May number. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 12,000 jobs in June, up slightly from last month.
Service-providing employment rose by 230,000 jobs in June, up from 148,000 in May. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed 77,000 jobs in June, up from 46,000 in May. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 50,000, up from May’s 36,000. The 11,000 new jobs added in financial activities was about double last month’s number.
"The June jobs number is a welcome boost,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The number of construction jobs added was particularly encouraging, representing the highest total in that industry since February of 2006.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is steadily improving. Job gains are broad based across all industries and company sizes. Judging from the job market, the economic recovery remains fully intact and is gaining momentum.”
And the obligatory infographic:
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