For a brief month of "we've been down so long, everything looks up", the NFIB Small Business survey suggested the 'recovery' was real and so serial extrapolators (throwing out the 'and small business is the engine of job growth' meme) jumped on it as 'proof' that stocks are cheap and bonds should be sold... then comes June data today (and it's a disaster). 6 of the NFIB's 10 indicators decreased, with about half of the decline in the overall index due to less confidence in future business conditions, the report said, with only 2 indicators improving. CapEx dropped, Sales expectations dropped, 'good time to expand' dropped, actual sales dropped with only hiring plans rising (which seems odd in the face of all the negativity in the rest of the survey) - we will see.
"It's not a great time to expand"
[4]
and the "outlook for business" tumbled
[5]
As Goldman reports,
KEY NUMBERS: NFIB small business optimism 95.0 in June vs. median forecast 97.0
MAIN POINTS:1. Small business optimism declined to 95.0 in June (vs. consensus 97.0), from 96.6 in May. By component, the largest decline occurred in expectations for the economy (-10pt to -10), while real sales expectations (-4pt to +11) and the net percent reporting that "now is a good time to expand" also declined (-3pt to +7). Plans to increase employment improved a bit (+2pt to +12), while plans for capital expenditures declined (-2pt to +22).
