If today's market desperately needed some bad news, it got it moments ago when the July payrolls printed at 209K, below the 230K expected, and far below the June upward revised 298K (was 288K). Of note is that this is the 6th month in a row of 200K+ job gains, the longst since 1998 . Away from the establishment survey, the household survey showed an even worse print, with just 131K job growth in July, down from 407K in June, so if any algos are scrambling to convince themselves that the data was horrible, look at this. But is the momentum slowing enough to force the Fed to push QE back? The unemployment rate rose modestly from 6.1% to 6.2%, beating expectations of an unchanged print driven by a decline in the people out of the labor force from 92.1 million to 92.0 million while the labor force participation rate rose by a tiny 0.1% to 62.9%.
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The labor force charts: the people "out of it" declined by 119K to 92,001, while the LFP rate rose modestly from 62.8% to 62.9%. Fewer people retiring?
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Full-time jobs rebounded modestly, rising by 285K in July following June's 523K collapse, even as part-time jobs continued rising, increasing by 52K in July, after +799K in June.
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And perhaps the most imporant chart: average hourly earnings, rose just 2.0%, following a downwar revision to June's 2.0% to 1.9%, below the 2.2% expected. So much for those soaring labor costs.
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