Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth [6]has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned [7]that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".
From Bloomberg:
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
- Fed’s July minutes indicate many on FOMC see possible need to change characterization of labor mkt utilization, economist Chris Rupkey wrote
- Yellen may address FOMC’s changing views as soon as Friday
Citi
- Yellen to “respond in force” to calls for earlier rate increase, justify keeping current guidance, economist William Lee wrote
Credit Suisse
- Geopolitical tensions with Russia, fighting in Middle East give Yellen and others excuse to delay “more hawkish rhetoric,” research analysts Dana Saporta, Xiao Cui wrote
HSBC
- Yellen to repeat view on “undesirable” slack in labor mkt, economist Kevin Logan wrote
- She’ll reiterate view even after recent unemployment decline
Jefferies
- Jackson Hole won’t be “game changer,” economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote
- Fed will not establish time frame for rates liftoff this week
Market Securities
- Yellen’s tone should remain dovish this week, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote
- She’s likely to focus on labor mkt slack, explain how it persists despite falling unemployment rate
Nomura
- Yellen likely to emphasize plenty of evidence of slack, even with recent improvements in labor mkts, economist Lewis Alexander wrote
- Not likely to signal policy change
Pierpont
- Yellen seen as continuing to “swear up and down” that slack remains in labor mkt to justify “holding policy at emergency stance,” economist Stephen Stanley wrote
Renaissance Macro
- Yellen to reiterate her “lower for longer” and “significant labor market slack” views, economist Neil Dutta wrote
Scotia
- Yellen to give dovish “gobbledygook” on Friday, strategist Guy Haselmann wrote
- Speech will likely discuss labor mkt slack as justification for “uber-accommodation”
Standard Chartered
- Yellen to cite large slack in Jackson Hole speech, economist Thomas Costerg wrote
- No hints of imminent policy action are expected
