It is not hard to find an exemplary chart of the collapse of the Japanese economy - as we have been diligently exposing for the past few years despite Abenomics' promises (tonight's especially) [7]. Even Japanese government advisors are concerned:
"My biggest concern is that most of the emphasis has been on solving the short-to-medium term challenges of overcoming deflation and boosting demand. While I think that emphasis has been the right approach, most Japanese economic problems really revolve around long-term issues: an aging and declining population, a need to increase our potential growth rate, and longer-term fiscal consolidation. Whether or not the government can overcome these challenges is still very much an unknown."
Motoshige Itoh, professor at the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Economics and a member of the Cabinet Office’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
These six charts suggest not only does Japan have a long way to go, but the trend is very much not their friend...
[8]
Source: Goldman Sachs
* * *
Goldman has a little more color on tonight's disaster too...
We expect sluggish recovery momentum: We estimate the drop-off from pre-tax-hike rush demand will gradually fade through Jul-Sep.
However, we watch for the possibility that the decline in real disposable income and large increase in inventories may continue to have a negative impact on domestic demand that deals a body blow to the economy for a comparatively long time.
We think unfavorable summer weather is also a negative catalyst.
