Key Events In The Coming Week: iPhone 6 Release And Other Less Relevant Happenings

One of the more amusing comments overnight came from Bank of America, which now predicts that China's export growth will be boosted by iPhone 6 by 1% per month through year-end. Whether or not this is accurate is irrelevant, but we are happy that unlike before, BofA has finally figured out that iPhone sales are positive for Chinese GDP, not US, which was the case with the release of the iPhone 4 and 5, when clueless strategists all came out boosting their US (!) GDP forecasts on the iPhone release. We note this because the long-awaited release of Apple's new iPhone will certainly grab some attention tomorrow. According to a BofA poll last week and of the 124 respondents surveyed, 66% of those have noted that they are going to buy the new iPhone and of those planning to buy 75% of those will be replacing their iPhone 5/5s.

In terms of economic data, after a quiet Money when the only release is the consumer credit data, on Tuesday we get the JOLTS report and UK Industrial Production are the main releases of the day. On Wednesday, we will get China's credit growth stats for August which will be interesting after a sharp decline in July. US wholesale inventories and French IP are also due on Wednesday. This then brings us to Thursday where Draghi is expected to give a keynote speech at a eurofi forum in Milan. We will also get inflation readings from China, France and Germany on Thursday. On Friday, the latest US retail sales data as well as U of Michigan consumer sentiment for September are due. We will also get IP data from the euro area and Italy but given deepening.

In chart format from BofA:

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The full weekly preview in detail, from Goldman Sachs

In DMs, highlights of next week include Japan Consumer Confidence and MP Minutes; Euro area CPIs; NZ MP Decision; US U Mich. Confidence.

[Monday] Japan GDP (expect 2Q F at -7.2%)
[Tuesday] UK IP, Japan Consumer Confidence (expect 42.5) and MP Decision Minutes
[Wednesday] Japan Machine Orders, France IP.
[Thursday] CPI in France, Germany and Sweden, MP Decision in New Zealand (expect on hold)
[Friday] US U. Michigan Confidence (expect 84, slightly above consensus), Euro area IP, CPI in Italy and Spain.

In EMs, highlights of next week include China monetary and trade balance data; CPIs in China, Czech Republic and Mexico; MP Decisions in Chile, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Korea; MP Minutes in Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Romania.

[Weekend] China New Yuan Loans, Money Supply, and Aggregate Financing (expect lukewarm numbers in July, after tightening in July)
[Monday] China Trade Balance (expect moderate export growth), Israel MP Minutes (look for discussion on unconventional policy), Chile CPI (expect 4.4% yoy)
[Tuesday] CPI in Czech Republic and Mexico (expect 4.09% yoy)
[Wednesday] Hungary and Romania MP Minutes, Mexico Investment (expect 2.1%)
[Thursday] China CPI (expect 2.1%), MP Decisions in Indonesia and Philippines (expect both on hold), Chile and Peru (expect 25bp in both cases).
[Friday] MP Decisions in Korea and Russia (expect both on hold), India IP, Brazil Economic Activity, Colombia MP Minutes.

By day:

Monday, September 8

Events: Speeches by Spain’s Economy Minister Guindos on OECD Report and US Treasury Secretary Lew, OECD Economic Survey, US states congressional primary elections.
Switzerland | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Aug): Previous 0.00% (-0.10% yoy)
Japan | GDP Annualized SA QoQ (2Q F): GS -7.20%, consensus -7.10%, previous -6.80%
China | Trade Balance (Aug): GS $45.60B, consensus $41.15B, previous $47.30B
Czech Republic | [MAP 4] Industrial Output YoY (Jul): Consensus 6.60%, previous 8.10%
Turkey | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous 0.10% (1.40% yoy)
Chile | CPI MoM (Aug): GS 0.20% (4.40% yoy), consensus 0.10%, previous 0.20% (4.50% yoy)
Also interesting: [DM] US Consumer Credit; Canada Building Permits; Trade Balance in Denmark, Germany, Finland, and Japan; Switzerland Retail Sales and Unemployment; Japan Bank Lending; Australia ANZ Job Advertisements; New Zealand Manufacturing Activity [EM] Romania Industrial Sales; Trade Balance in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Chile.

Tuesday, September 9

Events: Speeches by BOE’s Carney and ECB’s Liikanen, Congressional Testimony by Fed’s Tarullo, Bank of Italy Monthly Report.
United Kingdom | [MAP 3] Manufacturing Production YoY (Jul): Previous 1.90% (0.30% mom)
United Kingdom | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous 0.30% (1.20% yoy)
Japan | [MAP 4] Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Jul): Previous -0.10%
Japan | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence Index (Aug): GS 42.5, previous 41.5
Japan | Minutes from MP Decision
Czech Republic | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 0.50%, consensus 0.50% (-0.20% mom), previous 0.50% (0.20% mom)
Mexico | CPI MoM (Aug): GS 0.30% (4.09% yoy), previous 0.28% (4.07% yoy)
Also interesting: [DM] US Small Business Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings; Canada Housing Starts; Trade Balance in France and United Kingdom: Japan Money Stock; Australia NAB Business Survey and Housing Finance; New Zealand Electronic Card Transactions [EM] Trade Balance in Taiwan, Czech Republic, Romania, South Africa and Peru; Russia Official Reserve Assets; Mexico ANTAD Same-Store Sales.

Wednesday, September 10

Events: Speech by BOJ’s Iwata, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions.
Denmark | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Aug): Previous -0.20% (0.50% yoy)
France | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous 1.30% (-0.40% yoy)
France | Manufacturing Production MoM (Jul): Previous 1.60% (0.10% yoy)
Norway | CPI MoM (Aug): Previous 0.70% (2.20% yoy)
Spain | Industrial Output SA YoY (Jul): Previous 0.80%
Japan | [MAP 3] Machine Orders MoM (Jul): GS 3.50%, previous 8.80%
Hungary | Minutes from MP Decision
Romania | Minutes from MP Decision
Romania | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 1.20%, previous 1.00% (-0.10% mom)
Turkey | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 2.30%, previous 4.30% (1.70% qoq wda)
Ukraine | GDP YoY (2Q F): Previous -4.70%
Mexico | [MAP 4] Gross Fixed Investment (Jun): GS 2.10%, previous 0.40%
Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications and Wholesale Inventories; Canada Capacity Utilization; Japan PPI; Australia Housing Finance and Westpac Consumer Sentiment [EM] Philippines Exports and Unemployment; Israel CA.

Thursday, September 11

Events: Speech by ECB’s Draghi and South Africa’s Finance Minister Nene.
France | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Aug): Previous -0.40% (0.60% yoy)
Germany | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Aug F): GS 0.80%, previous 0.80% (0.00% mom)
Sweden | CPI MoM (Aug): Previous -0.30% (0.00%)
United Kingdom | RICS House Price Balance (Aug): Previous 49%
New Zealand | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Official Cash Rate at 3.50%, in line with consensus). At its July meeting, the RBNZ delivered its fourth consecutive 25bp hike taking the OCR to 3.5%, and the accompanying statement was relatively dovish and a reasonable about-turn from the hawkish message delivered in June. The RBNZ acknowledged that the economy appears to be responding to monetary policy tightening and inflation pressures have not picked up as much as expected. Most importantly, it signaled a pause in the tightening cycle stating that “It is prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further toward a more-neutral level.”
China | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 2.10%, consensus 2.20%, previous 2.30%
Indonesia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Reference rate at 7.50%). The continuation of the moderating trend in GDP growth in Q2 and the latest inflation reading (the lowest in more than 18 months) would seem to point towards the possibility of a more dovish stance by the central bank. However, the BI currently maintains a tightening bias in accordance with its stated goal of reducing external imbalances to a more sustainable level. In its last monetary policy meeting, the BI noted that this deceleration in growth and inflation was in line with the “ongoing economic rebalancing process.”
Malaysia | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): Consensus 4.70%, previous 7.00%
Philippines | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Borrowing Rate at 3.75%, in line with consensus). Recent commentary from the central bank continues to suggest that the BSP remains hawkish on inflation. The most important incremental information since the last meeting was the Q2 GDP print, which was better than expected at 6.4%yoy (vs. consensus 6.1%), and August inflation which remained elevated at 4.9%yoy, near the upper limit of the BSP annual average inflation target of 3%-5% for 2014. While we do not expect the BSP to hike rates at this meeting, with elevated inflation against a backdrop of strong domestic growth and a positive output gap, our augmented policy rules continue to suggest that tighter policy is required at this point.
Hungary | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 0.20%, previous 0.10% (0.20% mom)
Romania | Industrial Output MoM (Jul): Previous -0.70% (11.50% yoy)
South Africa | [MAP 4] Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY (Jul): Previous 0.50% (1.40% mom sa)
Brazil | Minutes from MP Decision: At the September 3 meeting, the Copom left the Selic policy rate unchanged at 11.00% (unanimous decision), extending the pause initiated at the May 28 meeting.
Chile | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut (in the Overnight Rate Target to 3.25%, in line with consensus). Moreover, we expect the directors to reiterate the easing bias of prior central bank communications, suggesting that further policy accommodation is likely.
Mexico | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): GS 2.30%, previous 2.00% (-0.20% mom)
Peru | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut (in the Reference Rate to 3.50%) and for the directors to reiterate a broadly neutral bias, which would be consistent with recent statements by central bank governor Velarde, signaling the unexpected decline in inflation in August created maneuvering room for monetary policy action.
Also interesting: [DM] US Federal Budget Balance and Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; Spain House Prices; Sweden Unemployment; Australia Unemployment [EM] China PPI; South Korea Unemployment; Trade Balance in Israel and Russia; South Africa Gold and Mining Production; Turkey CA; Brazil Retail Sales.

Friday, September 12

Events: Speech by BOJ’s Kuroda.
United States | [MAP 4] Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (Aug): GS 0.80%, consensus 0.50%, previous 0.10%
United States | [MAP 1] Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Sep P): GS 84.0, consensus 83.5, previous 82.5
Euro area | [MAP 5] Industrial Production SA MoM (Jul): Previous -0.30% (0.00% yoy)
Italy | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous 0.90% (0.40% yoy)
Italy | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Aug F): GS -0.20%, previous -0.20%
Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Aug F): GS -0.50%, previous -0.50% (-1.50% mom)
Hong Kong | Industrial Production YoY (2Q): Previous 2.10%
India | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 7.80%, previous 7.96%
India | [MAP 3] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): GS 1.00%, previous 3.40%
South Korea | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (7-Day Repo Rate 2.25%, in line with consensus) and for the MPC to maintain its neutral tone in the September meeting. Minutes for the August MPC meeting suggest that most members would prefer to keep the policy rate on hold in the near term. We continue to believe the MPC is likely to hike in 3Q2015 in sync with the Fed, should global economic recovery take hold in the coming months, as we currently expect.
Russia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (One-Week Repo at 8%, in line with consensus). After pricing an up to 50% chance of a hike earlier this month, the market is now pricing almost no probability of a hike. Our view remains that the underlying domestic sources of inflation are declining as the output gap is opening up, given that the economy is growing below potential.
Argentina | National Urban CPI MoM (Aug): GS 1.70%, previous 1.40%
Brazil | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Jul): GS (0.90% mom), previous -2.15% (-1.48% mom)
Colombia | Minutes from MP Decision
Also interesting: [DM] US Import Price Index and Business Inventories; Euro area Employment; France CA; United Kingdom Construction Output; Japan Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production (Jul F); New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI [EM] Hungary Industrial Production; Hong Kong PPI