We suspect the market will be disappointed by this morning's headlines from China. Chinese rate markets are implying a RRR cut is coming soon (as swap rates drop below deposit rates - previously signaled 2 RRR cuts) but the PBOC announced this morning a muich more focused injection of cash to 20 of the nations' largest banks. RRR cuts, are (theoretically) considerably more broadly stimulative to lending than a $32.8 billion cash injection to banks - which are struggling to lend as demand for loans (given high costs of debt for the firms that need the money the most) is weak. One can only imagine the holes in bank balance sheets that exist if the PBOC is forced to do this. Simply put, no matter how much hope there is, as we noted previously, the PBOC will not be providing broad stimulus. [11]
Markets are hoping/pricing-in a rate cut... (the last 2 times that swap rate have dropped below dep rates, PBOC cut RRR)
[12]
But the PBOC gives the banks cash directly (as The Wall Street Journal reports),
China’s central bank is planning to inject up to 200 billion yuan ($32.8 billion) into about 20 large national and regional banks, according to banking executives briefed on the matter, in another step aimed at spurring the world’s second-largest economy.
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It seems the holes in bank funding are considerably bigger than the market thinks as we previously discussed [11], China will not be embarking on broad stimulus...
The punchline:
Part of China’s “new normal,” he said, is that “big stimulus” won’t be called for every time growth decelerates. “And secondly, the new norm will involve a lot of rebalancing in terms of changing the economic structure.”
If that is indeed the case, one can now forget about any Chinese monetary intervention. Or rather, one can forget about such intervention until such time as the Chinese housing market is in freefall, at which point China's 1+ billion society will be on (if not beyond) the edge of out right revolt. To say that the PBOC will not get involved at that point is certainly naive. However, there will be blood on the streets, metaphorically when it comes to the New York stock exchange in Mahwah, NJ and literally when it comes to China.
