The Nigerian Naira and Russian Ruble have been the hardest hit in the last few days as oil-producing nations across the world see their currencies come under increasing pressure. With both hitting new record lows against the USDollar (with the Naira at 184.5, already exceeding the recently devalued currencies upper peg band at around 176 per USD [5]), chatter this morning is that the Russian central bank is actively intervening in the Ruble market after it hit 53.9 in early US trading.
The currency carnage since oil prices peaked
[6]
and desk chatter is the Russian Central Bank is intervening as RUB neared 54 to the USD
[7]
As Bloomberg reports, it's not all terrible news for Russia, [8]
A weaker ruble benefits the budget because it boosts export revenue in local-currency terms, helping offset the slide in Brent. Russia relies on oil and gas for 50 percent of budget revenue.
Bank of Russia probably won’t intervene as the “ruble’s devaluation balances out the falling oil price,” Evgeny Shilenkov, the head of trading at Veles Capital LLC in Moscow, said by phone Nov. 28. “The currency market is more realistic after the free-float and reflects the actual oil price.”
Nabiullina is weighing policy options as she seeks to keep lending flowing in an economy on the brink of recession, while avoiding a deeper currency slump that could spark a rush among citizens to switch their ruble savings into dollars.
Russia faces a 70 percent chance of recession, a survey of economists from Oct. 30 showed. The economy of the world’s biggest energy exporter has been weakened by U.S. and European sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s role in Ukraine, where pro-Russian rebels battle government troops.
“The pressure on the ruble is less about the conduct of Russian monetary policy and more about plunging oil prices,” Nicholas Spiro, head of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said by e-mail Nov. 28.
Charts: Bloomberg
