As everyone knows by now, tomorrow the ECB will announce a QE plan that monetizes some €50 billion (and maybe more) in European government bonds per month, although Greece may be left out in the cold. It is also the reason why while European stocks have priced in more than 100% of the full impact of a €1 trillion QE, those gains are about to be wiped out. Here's why according to Panmure Gordon.
From the Panmure [6]note:
While the impact on European equity markets to be positive in the short-term, 3 things will eventually curtail positive impact:
- Disunity among euro zone politicians
- Greek election on Jan. 25
- Restrictions on range of assets ECB can buy
And here is what we have said from the very beginning about not only European but US QE: Panmure says €1 trillion in QE from ECB doesn’t do much except buy time for politicians. Which is absolutely spot on and was exemplified by the infamous Schumer outburst to Bernanke: "Get to work Mr. Chairman. [7]"
Panmure adds that Europe must increase economic/political convergence and structural reforms or face threat of “persistent existential crisis." This happens at a time when the greater union has rarely appeared less attractive to voters.
That means euro is now an "unsustainable currency peg" for its members, adding that the Euro is also the biggest threat to U.K. growth in 2015
And the report's conclusion: "With euro firmly “in the crosshairs” 2015 is shaping up as the Great Unwinding."
