After last month's epic Personal Income and Spending data manipulation revision by the BEA, when, as we explained in detail [5], the household saving rate (i.e., income less spending ) was revised lower not once but twice, in the process eliminating $140 billion, or some 20% in household savings...
[6]
... there was only one possible thing for household spending to do in December: tumble.
And tumble it did, when as moments ago we learned that Personal Spending dropped in the month of December by a whopping 0.3%, the biggest miss of expectations since January 2014 and the biggest monthly drop since September 2009!
[7]
As a result, this is what the US income and spending picture looked like:
[8]
And, as we predicted last month, the savings rate surged from 4.3% to 4.9% in December, as the spending spree, all of which took place simply in Department of Truth seasonally-adjusted models, had to be normalized out.
But wait, there's more. Because while spending cratered the most in 6 years (but.. but... gas-savings boost spending), the income picture was just as dire, and while Personal Income rose by 0.3% in December, above the 0.2% expected, the key component that everyone is, or should be, looking at, Wages and Salaries increased by a tiny 0.1%: the smallest monthly increase since May, and what's worse, Goods-producing wages actually declined by 0.2% in December, driven by a drop in Manufacturing sector wages.
Some recovery; some "plunging gas price" spending spree.
