While Bridgewater's Ray Dalio "hopes that The Fed will be very cautious about tightening," Saxobank CIO Steen Jakobsen explains in this brief clip that The Fed "is wrong, always wrong," and will likely raise rates in June no matter what. The Fed is boxed in, Jakobsen notes, and despite the weak macro data, changing direction now is unlikely - leaving the market surprised as it recognizes that "this is a margin call on assets," seemingly confirming Dalio's conclusion that, "inadequate attention is being paid to the risks of a downturn in which central bankers' abilities to ease are significantly impaired."
Jakobsen explains in 2 minutes why The Fed is boxed in and the market will be shocked at "the margin call on assets"...
And Bridgewater's Ray Dalio concludes rather uncomfortably,
Though the prices of risky assets are high, and the expected returns are low relative to traditional levels, these things are not in relation to existing levels of interest rates and liquidity. However, should interest rates rise and liquidity levels decline materially, that picture will change.
Further, though cash returns are terrible, few investors in risky assets have given much attention to how quickly losses of capital can be worse and what the appropriate risk premia should be to make them indifferent.
Additionally, in our opinion, inadequate attention is being paid to the risks of a downturn in which central bankers' abilities to ease are significantly impaired. Please understand that we are not sure of anything but, for the reasons explained, we do not want to have any concentrated bets, especially at this time.
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