A funny thing happened in Britain... as calorie intake has fallen by 8% in the last decade and 4.4% since 2010, driven both by eating out less and eating healthier at home, so obesity levels are stabilising versus recent years with the number of patients diagnosed as obese also declined by 15% yoy in 2013/14, following a 7% decline in 2012/13. In the US, however, the latest data shows that obesity is still rising...
As Goldman Sachs asks, has obesity peaked in the UK? And what about the US?
The UK’s latest statistical release of diet habits and obesity in the country throws up some interesting observations. While the prevalence of obesity remains high versus history at c.26% and 24% for men and women, respectively, the levels are stabilising versus recent years.
- Obesity in men is below the 2010 highs and for women the rate has fallen back to 2009 levels.
- The number of patients diagnosed as obese also declined by 15% yoy in 2013/14, following a 7% decline in 2012/13.
Changes in food consumption behaviour are consistent with this observation; calorie intake has fallen by 8% in the last decade and 4.4% since 2010, driven both by eating out less and eating healthier at home. Has obesity peaked in the UK?
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And across the pond:
In the US, latest data shows that obesity is still rising, but a deeper look at the information suggests that this rise could be stemmed. Calorie consumption in 20-year olds has shrunk by 9% in the last ten years, even though consumption in older age groups is still high and not really declining. Self-reported data points published by Gallup paint a consistent picture – the rise in obesity is being driven primarily by baby boomers and the soon-to-retire population, while younger adults are recording a more benign change.
The momentum in changing food consumption habits is even more evident in company reported data. Same store sales for US fast food burger joints have been declining over the last year or so, and our analysts believe that responses to this, such as McDonald’s initiative to introduce antibiotic free chicken and kale on its menus, is unlikely to move the needle on millennials’ attitude toward the brand. Volume declines for carbonated soft drinks tell a similar story; note that less than a decade ago, energy drinks and soda accounted for over 9% of all calories consumed by teenagers and over 7% for 19-30 year olds in the US.
The bottom line:
We are beginning to see the initial effects of the ongoing health and wellness wave in DMs on obesity levels. However, we are far from concluding that the tide has turned.