After the abysmal March payrolls number, there were expectations in the whisper forecast of today's initial claims that there would be a sizable jump in initial unemployment claims, one that may break the streak of 4 consecutive prints under 300K. It did not happen, and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market, where there was 281K initial claims in the past week, just under the 283K expected and higher than the revised 267K from last week. This is the lowest level for this average since June 3, 2000 when it was 281,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 285,500 to 285,250.
The DOL added that "there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims."
[7]
[8]
Continuing claims likewise declined from last month's 2.327MM to 2.304MM, below the 2350K expected.
From the report:
In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 268,000 to 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending March 28, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 2,304,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 9, 2000 when it was 2,263,000. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 2,325,000 to 2,327,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,360,750, a decrease of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2001 when it was 2,360,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 2,387,750 to 2,388,250.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 21 was 2,617,970, a decrease of 141,794 from the previous week. There were 3,163,363 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2014.
Curiously, the state breakdown did not show any sizable jump in the Texas claims for yet another week, which contradicts the Challenger layoffs report according [9]to which Texas is now, based solely on the pace of terminations, in recession.
[10]
So will today's good news be bad news for the market, just like Friday's ugly jobs report was initially seen as bad news for the S&P only to lead to the biggest intraday surge of 2015 on Monday? Or will the "market" merely do Bill Dudley's bidding and keep going higher, but not too fast?
