According to a new poll conducted by Bloomberg Politics/Purple Insights there is now even less of a clear frontrunner for GOP presidential candidate with than there was several months ago. The reason: Marco Rubio’s support among GOP primary voters has been rising while Jeb Bush's has fallen off, depriving him of his leading spot in the polls.
The poll was conducted by Purple Insights, and found that while Rubio's support has doubled from 5% to 11% since a similar poll conducted in February [3], Bush has dropped 5% to 11%, putting him into second place behind Rand Paul and Scott Walker tied for first.
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Some of the key highlights from the Bloomberg poll [5]:
- Scott Walker leads when first and second choices among likely GOP primary voters are combined — a positive sign for his prospects in N.H. He's backed by 24% in that case, followed by 21% for Bush and Paul and 20% for Rubio.
- Paul leads the GOP field in support among independents, with 18% support. Bush is relatively weak among independents — while drawing support from 15% of Republicans, he has the backing of just 6% of independents.
- Trump was selected by 8% of likely GOP primary voters—up 5 percentage points from February.
- When asked to choose whether Clinton or Bush would be the next president, 33% of N.H. likely general-election voters said Clinton, 27% didn't venture a guess, 22% said someone else and 18% said Bush.
And while there is much confusion in the GOP field, Democrats are far more clear who they will pick as their candidate. With 62% support among likely Democratic primary voters - her best showing in this poll since November, Hillary Clinton has an insurmountable lead, suggesting the relentless wave of negative stories about the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private e-mail server have not hurt her among the party’s base.
Clinton’s closest New Hampshire primary competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders, has 18%.
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But since the outcome of the primaries has already been largely pre-determined, and America will soon to be presented with the next dynastic iteration of the "Bush vs Clinton" false dilemma, here is how the key (non) question breaks down as of this moment: if the 2016 election were held today, for whom would you vote?
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It is not only Bush who is "close" to Clinton. According to the pol. three GOP candidates are now within three points of Hillary. In addition to leading Bush by a small margin, she is also ahead of Paul (46-43%) and Rubio (44-42%).
Bloomberg suggest that these are "warning signs" for Clinton. Since the last poll in February, three of the top-polling Republican candidates—Bush, Paul, and Rubio—have moved into striking distance and are now within the poll's margin of error of tying her in hypothetical match-ups.
Perhaps because nothing makes a competition more "credible" than giving the impression that there is an actual choice.
And while nothing shows more clearly that America has absolutely no real options if all it boils down once more is another case of "Bush vs Clinton", some naive, delued invidiuals - elsewhere known as "independents" - still believe that the US democratic machine is not only functioning but well greased.
“Clinton’s strength in the primary remains historic," said Purple Insights' Doug Usher. "But she’s facing the laws of political gravity among independent voters more quickly than her campaign might have hoped.”
Clinton's numbers with independent voters were destined to fall at some point, Usher said, as the campaign becomes more fully formed and intensely competitive.
Among independent general-election voters in New Hampshire, Clinton is tied or nearly tied with Bush, Paul and Rubio. She does better against Walker with this group, leading 42 percent to 36 percent.
Poll respondent Stephanie Korb, 57, a Republican dental assistant from Belmont, N.H., said she is leaning toward Rubio.
“He seems like a less offensive choice than the others,” she said. “I want to hear what the candidates want to do to turn this country around and you're not hearing that.”
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Part of Paul's strength is his ability to attract independent voters, a key group especially in New Hampshire, where they can vote in partisan primaries. He's supported by 18 percent of independents who said they were likely to vote in the Republican primary, easily the most of anyone in the field. That means he's going to want to see the state's Democratic primary remain a lopsided affair, prompting independents to stick with the action on the Republican side and continue to support him.
Bush is relatively weak among independents. While drawing support from 15 percent of Republicans, he has the backing of just 6 percent of independents. That's a potential problem for Bush, especially if he runs poorly in the Iowa caucuses set for the week before New Hampshire's primary. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed Bush in 7th place in Iowa, so he might need a top finish in New Hampshire to rebound.
One can read more about America's so-called decisionmaking process over at the Bloomberg website [5].
