Having missed for a record 5 months in a row [10], Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook collapsed further in May to -20.8 (against expectations of -12.4). Thisis the 5th drop in a row (only ever seen in a recession) and 6th monthly miss in a row (never seen before) as it appears Former Dallas Fed Fisher was talking crap once again when he said "net, low oil prices were good for Texas." [11] Despite Consumer Confidence indicating, somehow, that Texans are the most confident in a year (up from 121 to 130 in May), business survey continues to point to notable weakness with employment collapsing, hours worked crashing, and production plunged. However, on a bright note, expectations for the future jumped from -5.9 to +4.9 - hope springs etermal eh?
Dallas Fed is crashing...
[12]
and Employment is plunging...
[13]
Under the covers it is really ugly...
[14]
As for the survey respondents, they were uniformly bearihs:
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
- We are cautiously optimistic about future demand and the economy as a whole. We have recently raised selling prices and are in the process of expanding production capacity, which will be completed in the third quarter of 2015.
- We believe that state and federal investment in new highway infrastructure is long overdue in Texas.
Primary Metal Manufacturing
- Imported steel continues to be a big problem in Houston, but it is also negatively affecting volume and pricing in the entire country.
Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
- Our business has been good this spring, and we expect it to stay that way through the third quarter.
- We don’t feel confidence anywhere, but we are feeling cost pressures.
- Refinery spending continues to be very tight, and we see significant price competition for the few orders actually being let. We are hoping the final settling of the strikes allows folks to return to "normal"—whatever that turns out to be.
- Our current delivery times are extended due to weather.
- The oil and gas exploration and production industry continues to worsen since last year’s peak. While the degradation is leveling, the related business impact remains. With some recovery of the price per barrel of oil, the general feeling is that our business impact has leveled.
- We are seeing all industries hold cash.
Machinery Manufacturing
- We've maintained the position that we need to give the oil market time to settle, so our goal has been to survive until the third quarter. At that point, production and inventories will have stabilized and maybe our customers will be more comfortable entering the market. We have numerous customers who have delayed purchasing product, and we are optimistic that they will begin ordering again in the third quarter.
- We are making capital equipment investments as the primary vehicle to grow the business.
- Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
- Our company, which ships internationally, is facing increased stiff competition from South Korea, China, and India. We are losing sales primarily to these three countries.
Wood Product Manufacturing
- We sell to new single-family home builders. Wet weather has slowed down the development of raw land into ready lots and the home construction process as well. It has affected our shipments for the last two months and will continue to moderate the construction pace for several more.
Paper Manufacturing
- We experienced a slow start that we hope doesn't catch on.
Printing and Related Support Activities
- We are in a heavy recapitalization cycle for our plant. This will be complete within the next six months, hence the peak now and fall off in our capital spending as the year progresses. Our headcount is down as we've lost employees to competitors and other opportunities. We actually need to hire several employees in the next couple of months to hit staffing goals, hopefully tapering off by the end of the year. The labor market has become very competitive in Dallas–Fort Worth. We're battling to keep our best young talent.
Textile Product Mills
- Government and banking regulations are creating non-value-added costs. Cross-border delays on our southern border are very difficult.
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
- The California shipping strike hurt our inventories and shipping. It is still backed up. The oil drilling slowdown has made a number of good people available for work until the next drilling pickup. Recent rain and floods may hurt May retail.
