Over the past several months, tensions between Russia and the West have escalated meaningfully. While it’s certainly true that, since Crimea, US-Russia relations have deteriorated steadily (baskets of potatoes notwithstanding), recent events suggests the situation may come to a head more quickly than either side cares to admit.
Ukraine has seen its worst outbreak of violence since February’s ‘ceasefire’ this month, with both sides blaming the other for the intensification of hostilities. Meanwhile, the US has dusted off the Cold War playbook (although, ironically, Defense Secretary Ash Carter claims Washington’s stepped up “containment” efforts are part of a new, more modern strategy designed to help America avoid being pulled back into the Cold War), suggesting heavy weapons may be stored permanently in Eastern Europe to ensure NATO forces can deploy quickly in the face of Russian “aggression.” Last week, Belgium, Austria, and France froze Russian state assets in an attempt to enforce an effectively unenforceable ECHR decision stemming from the long-running Yukos debacle, while Germany, Norway, The Czech Republic, and The Netherlands rehearsed a Ukraine siege in Poland.
Today, Europe has extended economic sanctions against Moscow for another six months or, until the Kremlin agrees to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreement which Europe, on the word of Kiev, assumes Moscow is violating. The Washington Post has more [17]:
The extension until Jan. 31 will keep the economic pressures in place through the deadline for implementing all parts of a cease-fire agreement to settle the conflict between Ukraine’s Western-allied government and pro-Moscow rebels.
Western leaders have repeatedly stated that Russia must support implementation of the cease-fire agreement before sanctions can start to be rolled back..
European and American sanctions have limited or banned the export of key technology to Russia’s defense and energy sectors, and have severely restricted financing for the Russian banking sector.
In turn, Russia has banned the import of almost all produce, meat, dairy and fish from the European Union and the United States. Both sides have composed blacklists of individuals subject to asset freezes and travel bans.
Extending the sanctions against Russia was seen as a vital move to keep pressure on Moscow to keep the cease-fire efforts intact — even as escalating clashes threaten in Ukraine threaten to unravel the truce hopes.
Until several weeks ago, it was unclear whether the E.U. would be able to muster the necessary unanimous support to keep the current sanctions regime going.
Moscow says the extension proves the West has no real interest in de-escalation:
"Even partial softening of the sanctions would have created a positive dynamic," Alexei Pushkov, the head of the Russian Duma's international relations committee, said to Interfax. "Even though the prolongation of the sanctions does not immediately sharply worsen the situation — it remains as it was — it creates a negative tone for at least another half a year in the relations between Russia and the European Union."
A statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it was “very disappointed” that the E.U. sided with the “Russophobic lobby, which push the decision to extend the illegal restrictions.”
“The Americans declare their interest in the provision of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. But they have absolutely no interest in Ukraine. They are interested in Russia,” said Nikolai Patrushev, chair of the Russian Security Council and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview with Russian newspaper Kommersant published Monday.
“The United States wants Russia to cease to exist as a country,” Patrushev said in the interview, explaining that the United States wanted to keep Russia from using its "huge" resources how it sees fit.
(Putin and Medvedev on Monday)
Of course, as discussed in these pages [18] at length, Russia still has considerable international pull thanks to its energy exports.
Last week, for instance, Gazprom inked a new deal with Shell (among others) to double the capacity of the Nord line which allows Russian gas to flow to Europe without passing through Ukraine.
(Nord line)
Additionally, Gazprom is now settling gas and oil exports to China in yuan, marking the two countries’ push to de-dollarize the global energy trade at a time when low oil prices are already threatening to drive the petrodollar system into extinction.
Against this backdrop, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter is in Europe drumming up military support and tossing around the nuclear war rhetoric. Here’s Reuters [19]:
The United States and its allies won't let Russia "drag us back to the past", U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in an address in Berlin on Monday, as he accused Moscow of trying to re-create a Soviet-era sphere of influence.
Russia's intervention in Ukraine has put NATO allies in eastern Europe on edge and triggered a series of military moves by the NATO alliance, including an acceleration of exercises and the creation of a NATO rapid response force.
Carter, who will view components of that NATO force later on Monday, said the alliance would keep the door open to an improved relationship with Russia but said flatly: "It's up to the Kremlin to decide."
"We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot war with Russia. We do not seek to make Russia an enemy," Carter said.
"But make no mistake: we will defend our allies, the rules-based international order, and the positive future it affords us all."
Carter said on Sunday the United States and NATO were preparing militarily for the prospect that their rift with Russia could even outlast President Vladimir Putin.
And more from Bloomberg:
Russia is “actively seeking to undermine NATO and erode the security and economic ties that bind us together,” U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter says in speech in Berlin.
“Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling raises questions about Russia’s commitment to strategic stability and the profound caution and respect world leaders in the nuclear age have shown toward the brandishing of nuclear weapons,” Carter says in prepared speech text.
U.S., EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine conflict are “the best tool we have to confront Russia’s aggression,” Carter says.
Sanctions have been effective, have “increased the cost Russia is paying for its aggression,” Carter says.
U.S., NATO will take “necessary steps” to deter Russia’s “malign and destabilizing influence, coercion and aggression,” Carter says.
In sum, the US, the EU, and NATO are going to extend economic sanctions and persist with war games, snap drills, and weapons deployment until such a time as Russia backs out of Ukraine altogether, something which seems unlikely at best. So, unless the US is willing to concede to Russia effectively redrawing the Russian border with Ukraine, one has to wonder how long it will be before the new Cold War turns hot.
