Earlier today we commented that while stock markets across the globe, heavily influenced by central bank intervention from the PBOC to the SNB, are doing everything in the central planners' power to telegraph just how irrelevant Greece is, other indicators are far less sanguine. One example was copper, which plunged to a level not seen since February [10], and was in danger of breaching its 15 year support level.
The commodity weakness today has persisted and is now crushing both WTI crude and Brent, both of which are in freefall, and WTI is now down over $3 on the session, or 6%, to a $53 handle, the biggest one day plunge since February (and the third largest in years) to a level last seen in early April when there was much hope that the dramatic plunge in December and January was finally over. Turns out it wasn't.
[11]
And, just like in the case of copper, should the drop in Brent persist it too, like coper, would be in danger of breaching a very long-term support line starting with a base in 1999 and continuing all the way through the the plunges of booth 2008 and early this year. SocGen with more:
As previously highlighted, last May price action in Brent formed a monthly Spinning top pattern at the key resistance of $70/72, the interception of the upward channel upper limit and 2010 levels. A Spinning Top is a bearish pattern, rarely a reversal one though, which usually happens after an extended rally/a new high which indicates a pause in upside momentum.
After peaking at $70/72 levels, Brent has been correcting lower within a down sloping channel ($64.37-$58.30) and the down move suddenly accelerated after the up sloping channel in force since last January finally gave way (i.e. $62.00/62.30 levels, blue dash).
Brent is approaching near a key support region at $58.30/57.50, with $57.50 being the ultimate retracement (at 76.4%) of the recovery which took place from January lows to last May highs. In other words, a break below $58.30/57.50 would mean the extension of the down trend and a retest of the 15-year trend line support (at $52/50) with intermittent supports at $56.45 and $53.19. Near term resistance is placed at $60.60.
Daily Stochastic indicator is probing the same levels as in January and March and therefore underlines key supports are near.
[12]
However far more relevant than what some lines and squiggles suggest is the trajectory of this most traded commodity on earth, is the question: why is crude (and copper) suddenly crashing, and what is really going behind the scenes for crude to suffer such a dramatic one day move and whether, as some are suggesting, this is a margin-call related liquidation as some, still unknown, hedge fund got a tap on the shoulder (or alternatively someone big in China got an equity margin call and is taking it out on commodities).
Should the collapse persist perhaps this time, unlike the last tumble in early 2015 when many were expecting at least one commodity hedge fund to be carted out, there will finally be named "casualties."
