California is finally set to get some drought relief …
Specifically, forecasters say a strong El Niño is heading our way.
Time gives [3] odds:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is now a 90% chance that El Niño will last through the winter and an 80% chance it will last into spring 2016.
As does [4] the Los Angeles Times:
Scientists say the likelihood that a significant El Niño will happen is more than 90%, and some models suggest there is a nearly 100% chance [5] it will be strong this fall.
El Niño increases rainfall [6] in California.
Forecasters say this could be the strongest El Niño in 50 years [7]. USA Today notes [8]:
There is growing evidence California could see an even stronger [9] El Niño event this winter than the 1997 one that caused massive flooding across Northern California.
Indeed, it could be so large that it sets “a new all-time record [10]”.
However, even a very wet winter probably won’t be enough to erase California’s drought. Scientific American reports [11]:
“California would probably need to experience its wettest year on record (by a fairly wide margin) to erase ongoing deficits in a single year,” Swain wrote on his blog. “While it’s not physically impossible, that would be a very tall order, indeed.”
Wired provides [12] figures:
The state would need about 150 percent of its normal rainfall [13] to replenish its reservoirs (the groundwater situation is a little bit trickier).
See this [14] and this [15] for related stories.
Note: Wired [12] and Accuweather [16] point out that there are other factors which could still derail a wet winter.