Dear Fed: behold another example of why your ludicrous rate hike ideas will crush the economy. Moments ago the BEA reported that the June international trade deficit spiked by 7.1% from $40.9 billion in May (revised) to $43.8 billion in June, as exports decreased and imports increased.
The previously published May deficit was $41.9 billion. The goods deficit increased $2.9 billion from May to $63.5 billion in June. The services surplus decreased less than $0.1 billion from May to $19.7 billion in June.
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As a result of the jump in the USD, exports of goods and services decreased $0.1 billion, or 0.1 percent, in June to $188.6 billion. Exports of goods decreased $0.2 billion and exports of services increased $0.1 billion.
- The decrease in exports of goods mainly reflected decreases in capital goods ($0.8 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion). An increase in consumer goods ($0.8 billion) was partly offsetting.
- The increase in exports of services mainly reflected an increase in other business services ($0.1 billion), which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related and other services and increases in several categories of services of less than $0.1 billion. A decrease in transport ($0.2 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, was mostly offsetting.
But while GDP boosting outbound trade declined, inbound rose rose: imports of goods and services increased $2.8 billion, or 1.2 percent, in June to $232.4 billion. Imports of goods increased $2.7 billion and imports of services increased $0.1 billion.
- The increase in imports of goods mainly reflected increases in consumer goods ($1.7 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($1.2 billion). A decrease in capital goods ($1.3 billion) was partly offsetting.
- The increase in imports of services mainly reflected an increase in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.2 billion) and increases in several categories of services of less than $0.1 billion. A decrease in transport ($0.2 billion) was mostly offsetting.
Perhaps it is time to adjust the definition of GDP to be boosted by net imports.
Looking at the geographic breakdown, the following picture emerges:
- The balance with Canada shifted from a surplus of $0.2 billion in May to a deficit of $3.1 billion in June. Exports decreased $1.1 billion to $23.0 billion and imports increased $2.2 billion to $26.2 billion.
- The deficit with Mexico increased from $4.1 billion in May to $5.4 billion in June. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $20.0 billion and imports increased $1.4 billion to $25.5 billion.
- The deficit with China decreased from $30.6 billion in May to $29.0 billion in June. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $10.5 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $39.5 billion.
Finally, when stripping out oil, the US trade deficit is once again en route to surpassing its all time highs. Or rather lows.
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