It was a quiet start to the week today with just the June Euro area trade balance (which rose €21.9bn vs €23.1 bn expected, up from €21.3 bn) in the European timezone and Empire manufacturing and NAHB housing market index for August this afternoon in the US. Under the radar, but perhaps the most news today, is the June TIC data which will likely confirm the ongoing liquidation of "FX Reserves" aka TSYs by "Belgium" aka China. Expect another $15-20 billion drop in Belgian Treasury holdings in the month of June.
It’s straight to the UK on Tuesday where we get the July CPI/RPI/PPI reports. There’s important housing data out of the US on Tuesday meanwhile with July building permits and housing starts. The Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDP nowcast after the housing data. It is currently at 0.7%.
It’s a busy start to the morning on Wednesday as we begin in Japan with July trade data and the Conference Board leading indicators. There’s no notable releases in Europe on Wednesday, however it’ll be all eyes on the US as we get a couple of bumper releases with the July CPI report and the release of the FOMC minutes later in the evening from the July 28th/29th meeting.
Turning to Thursday we get more important data out of the UK with July retail sales, while German PPI is also expected in the morning. It’s set to be busy in the US again on Thursday with existing home sales, Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook reading for August.
It’s a pretty quiet end to the week on Friday with just German consumer confidence, Euro area consumer confidence and UK public sector net borrowing data in Europe, while in the UK we get the flash August manufacturing PMI print. Fedspeak wise, it’ll be worth keeping an ear out for Williams and Kocherlakota on Thursday.
And here is a summary table from BofA:
[13]
Source: DB, BofA
