In the week following the Fed's admission it is not only market-driven but now has a 4th mandate, which is to respond to China's hard landing on a day-to-day basis, US macro events mecrifully slow down to give everyone a chance to digest what the Fed just did. Here are the highlights.
- On Monday, the US only gets existing home sales data this afternoon from the ever-conflicted NAR, although even Larry Yun may be hard pressed to come up with positive spin. According to BofA, 'After a string of solid gains in existing home sales, we think the risk is for a modest reversal, falling about 1.0%, to 5.53 million, in August. Mortgage purchase applications have slipped lower over the prior two months, while pending home sales have softened. Moreover, the data are due for a reversal after the strong performance over the prior several months."
- Tuesday morning in Asia we get the Conference Board leading indicators out of China, before Euro area consumer confidence and UK public finance data is due in Europe. In the US tomorrow we’ve got the FHFA house price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index reading.
- It’s a busier day on Wednesday and we start in China with the flash September Caixin manufacturing PMI print, arguably the most important data point of the week. This is followed up by the flash PMI (manufacturing, services and composite) readings for the Euro area, Germany and France in the European session. The manufacturing PMI print will also be due in the US on Wednesday.
- The focus on Thursday morning will be in Japan where we get the manufacturing PMI print and all industry activity index reading. This is before we turn to the European session where we’ll get German IFO and consumer confidence and French confidence indicators. There’s some top tier data in the US on Thursday with capital and durable goods orders, while initial jobless claims, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity and the Chicago Fed national activity index are also due.
- We finish the week in Asia with Japan where we’ll get CPI and PPI data. That’s before we get Euro area money supply in the European session. It’s a busy end to the week in the US and it’s highlighted by the final reading of Q2 GDP. The core PCE print will also be closely watched while the flash services and composite PMI’s and University of Michigan consumer sentiment print round off the releases.
Fedspeak is set to be closely watched and we’ve got Yellen due on Thursday, while Lockhart (next three days), Bullard (Friday) and George (Friday) are also scheduled. ECB President Draghi is also due to speak, scheduled for Wednesday.
Summarizing the US calendar courtesy of BofA:
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