Hot on the heels of British military threats of a coup [7], the potential for a truly 'red' black swan of an event has reared its ugly head in China, just as Xi tours America. As Reuters reports [8], bitterness is growing within China's armed forces to President Xi Jinping's decision to cut troop numbers by 300,000, and, according to a source and commentaries in the military's newspaper, considerable effort will be needed to overcome opposition to the order with PLA official sources warning "people are worried, it's been too sudden."
Xi made the unexpected announcement on Sept. 3 at a military parade in Beijing marking 70 years since the end of World War Two in Asia. The move would reduce by 13 percent one of the world's biggest militaries, currently 2.3-million strong.
China's Defence Ministry said the "broad mass" of officers and soldiers "resolutely endorsed the important decision of the (Communist) Party center and Central Military Commission and obey orders". But as Reuters reports, [8]
Bitterness is growing within China's armed forces to President Xi Jinping's decision to cut troop numbers by 300,000 and considerable effort will be needed to overcome opposition to the order, according to a source and commentaries in the military's newspaper.
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One government official, who meets regularly with senior officers, said some inside the People's Liberation Army (PLA) felt the announcement had been rushed and taken by Xi with little consultation outside the Central Military Commission. Xi heads the commission, which has overall command of the military.
"It's been too sudden," the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"People are very worried. A lot of good officers will lose their jobs and livelihoods. It's going to be tough for soldiers."
China has previously faced protests from demobilized soldiers, who have complained about a lack of support finding new jobs or help with financial problems.
A protest by thousands of former soldiers over pensions was reported in June, although the Defence Ministry denied any knowledge of the incident.
The PLA is already reeling from Xi's crackdown on deep-seated corruption in China, which has seen dozens of officers investigated, including two former vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission.
Barely a week after the Beijing parade, the PLA newspaper said the troop cuts and other military reforms Xi wished to undertake would require "an assault on fortified positions" to change mindsets and root out vested interests, and that the difficulties expected would be "unprecedented".
"Some units suffer from inertia and think everything's already great. Some are scared of hardships, blame everyone and everything but themselves ... They shirk work and find ways of avoiding difficulty," the commentary said.
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The cuts come at a time of heightened economic uncertainty in China as growth slows, its stock markets tumble and the leadership grapples with painful but needed economic reforms, deepening any schism from the fiercely loyal PLA soldiers to any potential leaders of a coup.
Now that is a "Red Swan" that the market is not pricing in...
