Moments ago we got a double whammy of both the Conference Board and Gallup's consumer confidence data. We were not surprised to observe that the gaping divergence between these two data series [7]which supposedly measure the exact same thing and yet which both report dramatically different results, have started to converge. To the downside.
First, it was the Conference Board, which at 97.6 slid from 103 the month before, badly missing expectations of a 102.9 print. Worse still, "hope" slid to its lowest in 3 months as "jobs plentiful" slid notably with fewer jobs and decreasing income.
Here is what the survey said [9]:
“Consumer confidence declined in October, following September’s modest gain,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers were less positive in their assessment of present-day conditions, in particular the job market, and were moderately less optimistic about the short-term outlook. Despite the decline, consumers still rate current conditions favorably, but they do not anticipate the economy strengthening much in the near-term.”
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was somewhat less positive in October. Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 28.1 percent to 26.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 16.4 percent to 18.3 percent. Consumers were also less upbeat about the job market. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 24.8 percent to 22.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 25.8 percent from 24.9 percent.
Optimism also faded:
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was slightly less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined moderately from 14.9 percent to 14.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 15.9 percent to 16.9 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined from 18.7 percent to 18.0 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline increased from 9.9 percent to 10.7 percent.
And with this mea culpa by the Conf Board, we go to Gallup [10]whose estimations of consumer confidence have been far more accurate.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index registered -13 for the week ending Oct. 25, identical to the week before. The index has held within a two-point range, between -12 and -14, for eight straight weeks.

Last week's current conditions score of -6 is the result of 24% of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good and 30% saying it is poor. The economic outlook score of -19 is the result of 38% saying the economy is getting better and 57% saying it is getting worse. Both are essentially unchanged from the prior week.

Gallup's bottom line: things are once again starting to go bad, as the "transitory" optimism from lower gas prices fades and consumers demand more stock market gains:
Though Americans' confidence in the economy remains negative, it has also not gotten worse after recovering from the year's low point of -17 in August.
October has brought some positive news as the Dow recovers, with gas prices and the national unemployment rate remaining relatively low. But amid these encouraging signs, major U.S. corporations are reporting a dip in sales and profits, and have signaled a slowing of production that could continue into 2016. None of these factors appears to have been enough to cause Americans to readjust their economic outlook in recent weeks.
For their part, Americans are not as optimistic as they were at the start of 2015, when the consistent decline in gas prices that began late last year helped make them more positive about the economy. Gas prices remain low relative to where they were in the summer of 2014, but Americans may be accustomed to the lower prices now and this may not have as much impact on their views of the U.S. economy's health as it did in late 2014 and early 2015. Other factors, like the struggles of the stock market for much of this year, may be more top-of-mind now. And while their confidence in the economy's current health is only slightly negative, their sense of the direction in which the economy is heading is even less rosy.
The question is whether this data will be bad enough to send stocks surging into the green ahead of AAPL's earnings report after the close.

