On Friday, just as oil tumbled below $40 for the first time in months, we were amazed to learn [10]that 6 weeks after being "the most bullish on crude he has ever been" (when crude was trading at $50), Gartman decided that "it is time to sell crude again" to which we said that "Andy Hall's thank you note to Dennis is now in the mail."
Sure enough, oil jumped, then jumped some more yesterday on the news that Saudi Arabia would do "whatever it takes" to stabilize oil, and then spiked above $43 today, far above Gartman's "stop" of $42, following the latest geopolitical debacle in the middle east after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane.
So having exhausted his usefulness, Gartman decided to do what he always does: cover the flop. The mea culpa in question:
WTI CRUDE: The Saudis “Reverse” Their Position: The trend has been rather clearly downward and the recent consolidation looked to be precisely that; but the announcement from the Saudis yesterday caused the market to “reverse” to the upside, although it did fail to close above the previous days’ high. But to the sidelines we go nonetheless.
CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE RALLIED SHARPLY, TO OUR OBVIOUS DISMAY following comments from the Saudi Cabinet yesterday that the Kingdom was intent… finally… upon “cooperating” with the other members of OPEC in some fashion at the upcoming meeting in Vienna December 4th.
* * *
We were short of crude oil as of late last week and for a few hours yesterday that short position looked very like it was to become swiftly insulated from random noise, but clearly that was not to be. We had a stop in on both Brent and WTI crude that has been elected using our “one hour” proof method, for when it comes to oil and “ags” we like to give the market an hour through our stops to prove their merit. This has been proven, obviously to our dismay, but there is little we can do to mitigate against policy statements such as this from the Saudi government.
The conclusion:
On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!
Finally we are considering… seriously… buying soybeans and may do so by tomorrow. Certainly we’ll not be short.
Too late: here's oil.


