ADP Payrolls Soar To Highest Since 2014, Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"

Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.

Best jobs gains in a year (does that sound right?)

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The details from the report:

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Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 95,000 jobs in December, up from November’s downwardly revised 72,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 65,000 jobs, up about 10 percent from last month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – came in at 97,000 an increase from the upwardly revised 80,000 jobs added in November. Companies with 500-999 added 39,000 jobs, while companies with over 1,000 employees gained 58,000 jobs.

Goods-producing employment rose by 23,000 jobs in December, well up from a downwardly revised -2,000 the previous month. The construction industry added 24,000 jobs, which was roughly in line with the 21,000 average monthly jobs gained for the year. Meanwhile, manufacturing stayed in positive territory for the second straight month adding 2,000 jobs.

Service-providing employment rose by 234,000 jobs in December, up from an upwardly revised 213,000 in November. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 66,000 jobs, the largest increase in this sector in 2015. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 38,000, off a bit from an upwardly revised 41,000 the previous month. The 13,000 new jobs added in
financial activities were right in line with the average for the year.

And ADP's commentary...

"2015 had a strong close with December showing the largest job gains of the year,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Overall, the average monthly employment growth was just under 200,000 for the year in contrast to almost 240,000 jobs per month in 2014. Weakness in the energy and manufacturing sectors was mostly responsible for the drop off.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Strong job growth shows no signs of abating. The only industry shedding jobs is energy. If this pace of job growth is sustained, which seems likely, the economy will be back to full employment by mid-year. This is a significant achievement, given that the last time the economy was at full employment was nearly a decade ago.”

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

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And, as usual, here is the biggest "value added" from ADP: the pretty infographic:

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ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 257,000 Jobs in December<br /> http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/December/NER/images/infographic/... [6]" width="598" />

Charts: Bloomberg