When we previewed [37]yesterday's Chinese trading session, which far more important to the US market than today's Nonfarm payrolls report (Exp. +200K, 4.9% Unemployment rate), we said to "keep an eye on the Yuan fixing around 8 pm: if the USDCNY sees another substantial jump (i.e., Yuan decline) from last night's 5 year low rate of 6.5646, this could suggest further turbulence and as all self-fulfilling prophecies go, unleash another pukefest which not even the circuit breaker adjustment will fix. It will also mean that unless the Chinese plunge protection team aka the "National Team" throws everything it has at the stock market, the Shanghai Composite could fall" a lot.
And sure enough, after 8 days of declines in the Yuan, China finally raised its CNY fixing by the smallest increment possible just to demonstrate that it is not forced to crush its currency, thereby signalling that whatever is slamming China's economy is not all that bad (that remains to be seen).
And then, when after an initial spike higher stocks immediately slumped...
[38]
... that's when the "National Team" came out and started buying. According to Bloomberg [39], "China intervened to shore up its slumping stock market for at least the second time this week as state-controlled funds bought equities, according to people familiar with the matter."
Government funds purchased local stocks on Friday, bolstering the market after regulators scrapped circuit breakers that ended trading early on two days this week, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the buying wasn’t publicly disclosed. Funds purchased financial shares and others with large weightings in benchmark indexes, the people said. The CSI 300 Index rallied 2 percent at the close, after tumbling 12 percent this week through Thursday.
Chinese policy makers, who took unprecedented measures to prop up stocks during a summer crash, are stepping into the market again after a rout erased more than $1 trillion of value in the first four days of the year.
It wasn't just stocks: China also had no choice but to intervene to prop up its currency in the open market: in the foreign-exchange market, at least two large Chinese banks were seen by traders selling dollars for yuan around the level of 6.589. The central bank ended an eight-day run of reductions to the yuan’s reference rate on Friday, helping send the currency to a 0.1 percent gain in the onshore market.
And so China is back to square one between lying about its non-intervention, and lying about its stable economy: "while the intervention may reduce selling pressure, it clashes with authorities’ pledge to give markets more sway in the world’s second-largest economy." Sorry China, you can't have both; the problem for Beijing is that by now everyone knows that if true price discovery is allowed, the Chinese market will implode, thus putting the country in a no way out position.
“The rebound is a short-term reaction to the Chinese stock market not collapsing any further,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, who helps manage about 250 million euros ($272 million) as head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany. “The big picture still remains cloudy, with the two main risk factors right now being commodity prices and whether the Chinese government has things under control.”
For global equities, China's intervention was welcome and long overdue, and after a terrible start to the year, with the Dow Jones suffering its worst start to a year in history, global markets and US equity futures finally rose overnight, even if far less forcefully than some had anticipated, and at last check the S&P was up only 0.5% to 1943 after rising as high as 1960.
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 1943
- Stoxx 600 down 0.1% to 345
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.1% to 124
- US 10-yr yield up 4bps to 2.18%
- Dollar Index up 0.46% to 98.67
- WTI Crude futures up 1.3% to $33.69
- Brent Futures up 1.6% to $34.28
- Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,101
- Silver spot down 1.6% to $14.08
Worse, in Europe all the euphoria is now over with the Stoxx 600 promptly rolling over, and down -0.1% at last check, while the Dax also turned red moments ago and below the key 10,000 level.
And, as shown on the chart below, US equity futures have likewise given up most gains since the announcement of last night's Yuan fixing:
[40]
Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks initially gained after the PBoC refrained from further lowering the CNY reference rate against the USD, although stocks have came off their best levels. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) initially traded in minor positive territory after the PBoC provided relief for markets, although gains failed to sustain amid losses and in the index's largest weighted stock Fast Retailing, following poor Q1 results. ASX 200 (-0.4%) failed to hold onto its gains, while the Shanghai Comp (+2.0%) traded volatile as participants digested the ongoing China developments and took the early improvement in risk appetite as an opportunity to book profits. 10yr JGBs gained as the BoJ conducted operations in the long-end, while T-Notes were pressured overnight as risk sentiment was lifted after the PBoC kept further devaluation in check.
Top Asian News:
- JPMorgan Says Tumbling Hedge Costs Signal Japan Bond Complacency: Swaptions near record low suggest investors expect low yields
- Masala Bond Debuts Delayed as Exotic Nature Means Higher Costs: Investors seek premiums to offset volatility, low liquidity
- Noble Group’s View It Can Handle Junk Rating Is Put to Test: Shrs at 7-yr low as S&P follows Moody’s in downgrade
In Europe, 2016 finally sees stocks experience some gains today, with European equities up across the board (Euro Stoxx: +0.40%) after the palpable risk off sentiment from earlier in the week dissipates after China relents, halting the stock market circuit breakers and refraining from weakening the CNY further today, as well as rumoured purchases of Chinese equities by state funds. While the more positive mood in Asia has bolstered the material sector, energy remains the laggard in European trade amid the ongoing slump in the energy complex and bearish mood regarding global demand.
Top Europea News
- German Industrial Output Unexpectedly Falls Amid China Risks: Production down 0.3% in November vs estimate for 0.5% increase
- Credit Suisse Rewrites Financial Reports to Ready Investors: Co. gave investors a preview of how it plans to report earnings next month, rewriting five years of financial statements
- Europe’s Economy Faces Confidence Test as Borderless Ideal Fades: analysts beginning to worry what could happen when free movement of people is called into question
Despite the strength in equities, Bunds have held steady so far today, trading in modest positive territory ahead of the key risk event later today, whereby participants will be focussing on the US nonfarm payroll report. In terms of the impact of the calming of China concerns, the German 2s/10s curve has seen bear steepening over the last 24 hours as sentiment has improved throughout markets.
However, as noted above, all the initial strength has now faded and as of right now, both the Stoxx 600 and the DAX are red.
There was much relief over China's response to the removal of 'circuit breakers' yesterday, and this has clearly played out in major FX. The USD/JPY recovery extended to 118.59, though US payrolls risk tempers gains from here despite some strong buying from a range of Japanese names overnight. The AUD got a lift also, but again tempered for now, but despite recovering to .7074, the spot rate is lower again and only 40-45 ticks off Thursday's lows. GBP ignored the trade deficit narrowing; press talk of an EU referendum in Sep. Oil recovers alongside stocks. USD/CAD back on a 1.4100 handle despite this.
Oil Prices remained subdued due to ongoing Chinese growth concerns, however Brent and WTI futures currently reside in positive territory, however heading into the North American crossover WTI is still down nearly 9% on the week and Brent down 8%. Goldman's noted that they are still bearish on oil, and traders in the options market have been touted protecting against a price fall below USD 25 bbl.
On today's calendar, the focus will be on the December payrolls print (where expectations are for 200k although the whisper perhaps slightly higher post the strong ADP earlier this week), while the usual employment indicators are released alongside including unemployment (expected to hold steady at 5%), average hourly earnings (expected +0.2% mom and +2.7% yoy – a rise of four tenths) and the labour force participation rate (no change expected at 62.5%). Shortly after we’ll get the wholesale inventories and trade sales data before the November consumer credit print in the evening. Fedspeak focus will be Williams (due 4.30pm) who is set to speak on the economic outlook, as well as Lacker (due 6pm GMT).
Top Headline News
- China Stocks Rally as State Funds Buy, Circuit Breaker Scrapped: Central bank ends eight-day run of reductions to yuan’s reference rate, state-controlled funds buy
- Top Hedge Fund Says China Should Have Waited on Crash Rule: Chinese retail investors need to get used to circuit breakers
- SNB Suffers Record 23 Billion-Franc Loss on Strong Currency: Last year’s loss estimate based on preliminary calculations
- VW Said to Weigh Buyback of Thousands of Cars in U.S. Talks: Some vehicles may be easier for automaker to buy than modify
- Samsung’s Earnings Miss Underlines Sputtering Global Demand: 4Q oper. profit 6.1t won vs est. 6.64t won
- Shell’s BG Deal Gets Backing of Shareholder Advisory Firm: ISS says deal has “compelling strategic rationale”
- Activist Holders May Press Time Warner on Sale, HBO Spinoff: NYP: Activists haven’t officially approached Time Warner
- Wall Street Fixed Income Traders Said to Face Bonus Cuts: WSJ: Investment bankers expected to get small bumps at best
- FedEx Wins No-Strings-Attached Approval for TNT Deal From EU: EU sees no antitrust concerns with FedEx adding TNT to network
- U.S. Equities See Major Outflows; Europe Sees Inflows, BofA Says: Net outflows of $12b in Jan. 6 week, largest in 17 weeks
- Obama Looks to Sway Public as Gun Control Stalls in Congress: Obama answered questions at town hall-style event Thursday night
- United CEO Munoz ‘Recovering Well’ After Heart Transplant: Set to return to work no earlier than end of quarter
Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquaqk and Bloomberg
- 2016 finally sees stocks experience some gains today, with European equities up across the board (Euro Stoxx: +0.40%)
- There was much relief over China's response to the removal of 'circuit breakers' yesterday, and this has clearly played out in major FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include the first US Nonfarm Payrolls after the December rate hike
- Treasuries lower overnight, paring first weekly gains since week of Dec. 11; global stocks recover as PBOC set a higher yuan fix and Chinese state-controlled funds were said to buy equities.
- Dec. nonfarm payrolls due at 8:30am ET, est. +200k with unemployment rate holding at 5.0%, labor participation rate holding at 62.5%, near lowest since 1977
- China’s forex reserves plunged by 13.4% to $3.33t in 2015 as the PBOC coped with a weakening yuan and an estimated $843b in capital that left China between February and November
- China’s currency regulator in Shenzhen told banks under its jurisdiction to limit purchases of U.S. dollars for corporate clients, according to people familiar with the matter
- South Korea reinforced defenses along its heavily fortified border after starting propaganda broadcasts aimed at destabilizing the Kim Jong Un regime as it sought to punish North Korea for conducting its fourth nuclear test this week
- Over the last eight days, Saudi Arabia has executed dozens of militants, severed ties with Iran and announced numerous steps for a radical rollback of the state that may include privatizing oil giant Saudi Aramco
- European governments showed little inclination to open a new front in the war against Islamic State after a terrorist attack rocked Libya, bringing the extremist advance closer to Europe’s shores
- Sovereign bond yields mixed. Asian and European stocks mostly higher, U.S. equity-index futures gain. Crude oil gains, gold and copper lower
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec., est. 200k (prior 211k)
- Change in Private Payrolls, Dec., est. 201k (prior 197k)
- Change in Mfg Payrolls, Dec., est -2k (prior -1k)
- Unemployment Rate, Dec., est. 5% (prior 5%)
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Dec., est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
- Average Hourly Earnings y/y, Dec., est. 2.7% (prior 2.3%)
- Average Weekly Hours All Employees, Dec., est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
- Change in Household Employment, Dec. (prior 244k)
- Labor Force Participation Rate, Dec., est. 62.5 (prior 62.5%)
- Underemployment Rate, Dec. (prior 9.9%)
- 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, Nov., est. -0.1% (prior -0.1%); Wholesale Sales, Nov., est. 0% (prior 0%)
- 3:00pm: Consumer Credit, Nov., est. $18b (prior $15.982b)
Central Banks
- 11:30am: Fed’s Williams speaks in Santa Barbara, Calif.
- 1:00pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Baltimore
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This afternoon we’ll get the final US payrolls report of 2015. On another given day this would almost certainly be dominating much of the focus for markets but it’s been put to one side what with the turmoil stemming out of China this week as the PBoC eases the reins on the currency. Yesterday was another rough day across the board for equity markets. After bourses in China had failed to stay open longer than 30 minutes, markets plunged globally. The S&P 500 eventually closed with a -2.37% loss and is down just shy of 5% (-4.93%) through the first four days of the year now. That’s the worst four-day start to a year since 1928 with the index now down at the lowest level since October 1st. The Dow (-2.32%) and Nasdaq (-3.03%) tumbled yesterday also and are down over 5% and 6% respectively this year. It was a similar story closer to home where the Stoxx 600 finished with a -2.21% loss. There was a lot of focus on the China FX reserves numbers also after December reserves fell more than expected and by the most on record, declining $108bn to $3.33tn (vs. $3.42tn expected). More on this shortly.
Meanwhile, there’s been a lot of focus on the use of the new circuit breakers for China’s equity exchanges, with the breakers having been put in place in a bid to help curb volatility across bourses. Well after just four days the experiment appeared to fail with the China Securities Regulatory Commission deciding to suspend the mechanism…..in a bid to curb volatility. It’s contributing to a better, although still volatile, start for markets in China this morning, but the uneasiness among investors remains high as each day brings about a new wave questions about government policy.
Also helping the positive start this morning is the news that eight consecutive days of the PBoC weakening the CNY fix has finally come to an end. The fix was set 0.02% stronger this morning which has resulted in both the onshore and offshore currencies trading little changed. The Shanghai Comp has rebounded +2.39%, although there was a brief moment of panic at the open when the index dropped over 5% off the initial highs, only then to rebound and settle down into the midday break. The CSI 300 (+2.75%) and Shenzhen (+1.65%) are up too, which has helped fuel modest gains for the Nikkei (+0.20%), Hang Seng (+1.12%) and Kospi (+0.44%). US equity market futures are up close to 1% while credit indices are generally a tad tighter.
With China’s currency providing a major source of volatility through 2016 so far then, DB’s George Saravelos, in a note published yesterday, highlighted that the message being sent out is rather straightforward: China will no longer tolerate competitive devaluations from the rest of the world. The Chinese economy has suffered because the currency has been fixed to the USD even as the rest of the world has been busily devaluing and 2016 marks the end of this regime. The shift opens the door for bigger and more volatile moves in the CNY, while George also believes that this also signals that the effectiveness of future QE programs from the ECB, BoJ and beyond will markedly decline. Meanwhile, George also highlights not to forget about quantitative tightening – the accelerating decline in global reserves which has been helped by persistent China outflows and additional declines in oil prices. Ultimately, until the market acquires greater confidence on the intended scale of currency depreciations as well as the equilibrium level of capital outflows (and effectiveness of capital controls) from China, concerns around the new currency policy are unlikely to subside.
Back to the rest of the price action and newsflow yesterday. There was no shortage of volatility across the Oil complex once again. WTI eventually finished the session down -2.06% and a little above the $33 mark, although at one stage looked in danger of dipping below $32 in the early morning, testing levels not seen since 2003. Gasoline (-1.36%) slipped lower although there was better news for Natural Gas (+5.07%) which surged on data showing a recent drop in stockpiles. Gold (+1.40%) rallied on a safe haven bid and is up nearly 5% YTD already. Credit markets weakened with the general risk-off tone, CDX IG in particular eventually closing nearly +3.5bps wider. US HY energy spreads moved +23bps wider and at 1,406bps are approaching those all time wides in mid-December again. Moves were more muted in Europe with Main and Crossover just +1.5bps and +6bps wider respectively. It looked like the primary market was set to remain closed, only for US semiconductor firm Microsemi to price a smallish US HY deal in the evening.
Some of the more interesting price action was in the US Treasury market. 10y yields eventually closed 2.5bps lower at 2.146% which was roughly the mid-point of the high to low range for the session after yields had nudged up close to 2.20% as Oil climbed off the day’s lows and the China FX reserves data revealed more Treasury selling than expected. Meanwhile the biggest losers in the currency market belonged, unsurprisingly, to emerging markets with decent losses for currencies in Mexico (-1.71%), South Africa (-1.23%), Chile (-1.00%) and Colombia (-0.45%), with the China-sensitive Aussie Dollar (-0.84%) also under decent pressure.
There was a bit more of a dovish tone to the Fedspeak from Chicago Fed President Evans yesterday. A non-voter on this year’s committee, Evans said that he is ‘less optimistic about the inflation outlook than most of my colleagues’ and that ‘policy should plan to follow an even shallower path of the federal funds rate than currently envisioned by the median FOMC participant’, which we remind is currently at four hikes compared to the two priced by the market.
There wasn’t much economic data to report of yesterday. In the US we saw initial jobless claims decline 10k last week to 277k (vs. 275k expected) which is just 1k above the current four-week average. In Europe we saw the Euro area unemployment rate dip one-tenth in November to 10.5% (vs. 10.7% expected) and to the lowest since October 2011. Euro area retail sales for the same month were softer than expected however (-0.3% mom vs. +0.2% expected), likewise for Germany (+0.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected). Meanwhile factory orders in the latter were much better than expected (+1.5% mom vs. +0.1% expected) while Euro area economic confidence rose last month, by 0.7pts to 106.8 (vs. 106.0 expected).
Looking at the day ahead now, this morning in Europe we kick off in Germany where we’ll get the November industrial production and trade data. This will be shortly followed by the November industrial and manufacturing numbers out of France, before we get the latest trade data out of the UK. The focus in the US this afternoon will be on the aforementioned December payrolls print (where expectations are for 200k although the whisper perhaps slightly higher post the strong ADP earlier this week), while the usual employment indicators are released alongside including unemployment (expected to hold steady at 5%), average hourly earnings (expected +0.2% mom and +2.7% yoy – a rise of four tenths) and the labour force participation rate (no change expected at 62.5%). Shortly after we’ll get the wholesale inventories and trade sales data before the November consumer credit print in the evening. Fedspeak focus will be Williams (due 4.30pm) who is set to speak on the economic outlook, as well as Lacker (due 6pm GMT).
Just when you thought you could try and avoid all things China this weekend, it’s worth highlighting that Saturday will see the release of the December CPI and PPI data for the economy. So it’s looking likely that this will be the focus for markets come early Monday morning.
