Iraq

In light of today's enormous domestic and international challenges, the United States today needs, more than ever, an effective grand strategy. Without one, the nation is in a dangerous state of drift. In the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential elections and in the midst of grueling battles over spending and deficit crises, American politics is highly polarized with the electorate and their policymakers deeply divided on domestic issues. Turning to foreign policy, the picture is equally troubling. The United States struggles without a coherent grand strategy, while the American people, its friends and allies, and competitors wonder what principles guide Washington's foreign policy. What, they must ask, does the United States want to achieve in its foreign policy, and what leadership role does it seek to play in this rapidly evolving world order. Simply put, grand strategy is a broad set of principles, beliefs, or ideas that govern the decisions and actions of a nation’s policymakers with public support on foreign policy.

Washington is laying on the malaise pretty thick lately over automatic budget cuts set to take effect in March, with admonitions and partisan attacks galore.  Of course, those of us who are educated in the finer points of our corrupt puppet government are well aware that the public debate between Democrats and Republicans amounts to nothing more than a farcical battle of Rock’Em Sock’Em Robots with only one set of hands behind the controls.  The reality is, their decisions are scripted, their votes are purchased, and they knew months ago exactly how America’s fiscal cliff situation would progress.  The drama that now ensues on the hill is meant for OUR benefit and distraction, and no one else. There are plenty of irrelevant federal appendages out there that could be amputated, but probably won’t be, while other more useful programs will come under fire.  In the end, the budget cuts are not about saving money; they are about social maneuvering and political gain.  They will be used as an excuse for everything, and will produce nothing favorable, not because cuts are not needed, but because the people in charge of them are not trustworthy.

The discovery of oil in the Middle East around the 1930s has had a drastic effect on the lives of the people in the region.  In most instances this black gold buried under the sands of Arabia has impacted the lives of the people in a rather positive manner. But not always. Syria today is burdened with the largest refugee crisis in the world - mostly displaced internally - a clear indication of population shifts. And as population shifts so too do demarcation lines, with the rebels claiming now to be in control of some of the oil producing sites. Will the opposition fare any better once they manage to get the oil facilities to operate once more? Or will they also contribute towards making the people who sell guns all that richer? How will they use the revenue if the manage to operate the facilities?

Last year was a record one for major new discoveries, and 2013 has so far demonstrated that the road to discovery still has plenty of mileage. The past two months alone have netted new finds in Egypt, a flurry of promising exploration results in East and West Africa, some important moves toward commercial viability in Kenya, more gas in the North Sea, an unexpected junior discovery in Brazil - and of course, more gains in Texas. Riding high on a year of brilliant discoveries, companies are drilling deeper and expanding exploration like never before. These are the top finds for January and February that should be on your radar and sure enough as we have been vociferously discussing, Africa is increasingly the focus of developed nations' resource hunting.

Russia is back. President Vladimir Putin wants the world to acknowledge that Russia remains a global power.  He is making his stand in Syria. The Russians are troubled by what they see as a growing trend among the Western Powers to remove disapproved administrations in other sovereign countries and a program to isolate Russia. Again, Russia is seeing Washington’s hand in Syria in the conflict with Iran. The Russians are backing their determination to block another regime change by positioning and manning an advanced air defense system in what is becoming the Middle East casino.  Putin is betting that NATO will not risk in Syria the cost that an air operation similar to what was employed over Libya will impose.  Just in case Russia’s determination is disregarded and Putin’s bluff is called, Surface to surface Iskander missiles have been positioned along the Jordanian and Turkish frontiers. Putin is certain that he is holding the winning hand in this very high stakes poker game. When the Turks and U.S see that there is little chance of removing Al-Assad, they will have no option other than to negotiate a settlement with him; and that would involve Russia as the protector and the mediator.

Waste and Fraud Are the Real Causes of the Deficit

The Obama drone program has been shrouded in secrecy, but after the leaking of the 'kill list' white papers, Russia Today notes, many critics are demanding transparency from the administration when it comes to the exact number of causalities. Due to the confidentiality of drone strikes abroad, it has proven difficult to get an accurate figure - until now. As Wired.com reports, US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has estimated that 4,700 people have been killed. As of now it is unclear how he obtained that figure, but his 'approving' comments raise questions about the accuracy of these attacks: "Sometimes you hit innocent people, and I hate that, but we're at war, and we've taken out some very senior members of al-Qaida." Graham did not offer an estimate of how many innocent people the drones have killed. Given the 430 or so strikes known about, this would imply around 10 kills per strike - but judging from the context of his remarks, Wired.com suspects, he's not counting the strikes in Iraq and Afghanistan. It wouldn’t be the first time that a U.S. senator has offhandedly revealed specific and unacknowledged information about the drones, following Diane Feinstein's 2009 gaffe, but Graham’s disclosure underscores the extraordinary secrecy around the centerpiece of U.S. counterterrorism efforts - a military action in all but name, operated by an agency that need not explain to the public how it carries out the program.

Army Chief of Staff: “The conundrum we have is that we don’t need the tanks”

Everyone Knew Iraq Had No WMDS … and Was Not Behind Anthrax Attacks or 9/11

• Here comes the replay of 2011 as China starts the counter-reflation moves: China Central Bank Reverses Cash Pump (WSJ)
• Security group suspects Chinese military is behind hacking attacks (Reuters)
• Iceland Foreshadows Death of Currencies Lost in Crisis (BBG)
• China Allows More Firms to Sell Mutual Funds to Bolster Market (BBG)
• Uncertainty looms for Italians (FT)
• Forget the big comeback; Detroit focuses on what can be saved (Reuters)
• SAC’s Cohen May Face SEC Suit as Deposition Hurts Case (BBG)
• Hollande wrestles with austerity demands (FT)
• Obama Golf With Woods in Florida Risks Muddling Messsage (BBG)
• Simpson and Bowles to Offer Up Deficit (WSJ)
• Aso Says Japanese Government Not Planning Foreign Bond Buys (BBG) - ... until it changes its tune once more
• Abe to Decide on Bank of Japan Governor Nomination Next Week (BBG)

TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman finds it hard to hide his disdain for the omnipotent reality that President Obama espoused of a non-deficit increasing State of the Union solution to all our ills (from climate, income inequality, opportunity, and health) as he notes the politicians "do not seem to understand is that big government is, in fact, the problem, not the solution." The problem is it is hard to find one service the government provides that is effective, other then writing checks. We have not won the federal wars on poverty, or drugs, nor overseas wars in Iraq, and Afghanistan - so although governments have rarely successfully provided services, we have a government committed to doing just that. This faith in government omnipotence is now bleeding over into stocks, as Biderman notes "since January 1, investors are pouring billions into the markets in the mistaken belief that the “fake” money created by central banks is just as good as previously existing money, and the markets will keep soaring. But for how long?" He is clear on the implication of this "magical thinking" At some point "the markets will have an “aha” moment and stop allowing central banks to use newly created money with which to pay government bills. When that happens the markets will crash."

America and China are on a collision course and the battleground is Asia. The new Cold War will impact U.S.-China trade as well as intra-Asian trade.

Exactly ten years ago to the day, Simon Black was in the Kuwaiti desert waiting for George W. Bush to ‘make his decision’. He knew it was going to happen. At the time, he was a rising intelligence officer, his head still filled with ideals of national duty from my time at West Point. It all came crashing down ten years ago today. On February 5, 2003 Colin Powell, four-star general turned US Secretary of State, made a case to the United Nations that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Now, we won’t bother delving into the inaccuracies of the intelligence he presented. In Powell’s own words, making that presentation to the UN was “the lowest point in [his] life” and a “lasting blot on his record.”For Black, it was pivotal. At that instant, he knew without doubt that his government had reprehensibly lied through its teeth. And if they were lying about this... what else were they lying about? As destructive as these politicians are, though, they’re easy to defeat. Individuals who take action early have plenty of options to buy precious metals, move a portion of their savings abroad to a stable banking jurisdiction, and scout out locations overseas in case they ever need to get out of dodge.

As the world's economic powers squabble over the intricacies of cause and effect in a vicious cycle of currency devaluation and domestic economic defense; it appears, NYTimes reports, that the US is leading the way in another direction. A secret legal review on the use of America’s growing arsenal of cyberweapons has concluded that President Obama has the broad power to order a pre-emptive strike if the United States detects credible evidence of a major digital attack looming from abroad - i.e. if we 'suspect' someone is going to hack us, we can hack them. In what appears to be Stuxnet's bigger (and scarier) brother,one official noted, "there are levels of cyberwarfare that are far more aggressive than anything that has been used or recommended to be done." New policies will also govern how the intelligence agencies can carry out searches of faraway computer networks for signs of potential attacks on the United States and, if the president approves, attack adversaries by injecting them with destructive code - even if there is no declared war. Cyberweaponry is the newest and perhaps most complex arms race under way, based in Cyber Command at The Pentagon, with the unspoken question being, ‘What are we going to do about China?’

Government Prosecutes and Harasses those Who Expose Criminal Wrongdoing