High Yield

Things just went a little bit turbo in the world financial markets.

Currently there is probably no other great divide in opinions than the current state of oil and all it entails. Not only do many not remember the early 80’s when U.S. oil producers went haywire, but they seem to have forgotten just how quickly in the sheer speed of panic, bankruptcies, and more that took place in the southern regions of the U.S. and Texas in-particular.

High-yield credit markets saw spreads widen 12bps on the week and high-yield bond prices fell notably as energy stocks faded after Monday's exuberant dead-cat-bounce. Trannies tumbled today off early exuberance gains, ending the week the biggest loser despite lower oil prices. Today's jobs data sparked initial "good news is bad news" weakness, was ramped to Europe's close then faded with Nasdaq and S&P red post-Payrolls. Treasury yields rose on the day (and week) with dramatic flattening as 2Y-7Y maturities up 17-20bps on the week and 30Y only 7bps higher. 2Y yields exploded 17bps for the worst week since Feb 2011 to Apr 2011 highs. The USDollar closed higher today (up 1.25% on the week) led by dramatic JPY weakness (and EUR fading). Despite USD strength, gold gained 2% on the week and silver +5.4% (best week in 6mo) even as oil lost 0.75% for its lowest close since July 2009. VIX tested down to an 11 handle but closed peeking back into a 12 handle, lower on the week. For the 3rd day of the last 4, internals created a Hindenburg Omen cluster.

The oil and gas boom in the United States was made possible by the extensive credit afforded to drillers. Not only has financing come from company shareholders and traditional banks, but hundreds of billions of dollars have also come from junk-bond investors looking for high returns. Junk-bond debt in energy has reached $210 billion, which is about 16 percent of the $1.3 trillion junk-bond market. That is a dramatic rise from just 4 percent that energy debt represented 10 years ago. junk bonds pay high yields because they are high risk, and with oil prices dipping below $70 per barrel, companies that offered junk bonds may not have the revenue to pay back bond holders, potentially leading to steep losses in the coming weeks and months. The situation will compound itself if oil prices stay low.

"The stock market just keeps zooming up. A low equity allocation must be hurting you now... For all purposes, this is a hideously expensive market. I don’t care if it’s a bubble or not. It’s too expensive, and I don’t need to own it. That is the problem. This is the first central bank sponsored near-bubble. There is just nowhere to hide... but... to think that central banks will always be there to bail out equity investors is incredibly dangerous."

In some respects we’re in danger of running out of appropriate descriptive superlatives for the current bout of “irrational exuberance” (we’re open for suggestions). The current asset bubble is in many respects reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble, but it also differs from it in a number of ways. One of the major differences is that the exuberance recorded in the data is largely confined to professional investors, while the broader public is still licking its wounds from the demise of the previous two asset bubbles and remains largely disengaged (although this has actually changed a bit this year). Monetary pumping merely redistributes existing real wealth (no additional wealth can be created by money printing) and falsifies economic calculation. This in turn distorts the economy’s production structure and leads to capital consumption, thus the foundation of real wealth that allows the policy to seemingly “work” is consistently undermined. At some point, the economy’s pool of real funding will be in grave trouble (in fact, there are a number of signs that this is already the case). Widespread recognition of such a development can lead to the demise of an asset bubble as well.

But, but, but... all the clever talking heads said they wil have to cut...

*OPEC KEEPS OIL PRODUCTION TARGET UNCHANGED AT 30M B/D: DELEGATE

WTI ($70 handle) and Brent Crude (under $75 for first time sicne Sept 2010) are collapsing... as will US Shale oil company stocks and bonds (and thus all of high yield credit) tomorrow. The Saudis are "very happy" with the decision, Venzuela 'stormed out, red faced, furious.' Commentary from various OPEC members appears focused on the need for non-OPEC (cough US Shale cough) nations to "share the burden" and cut production (just as the Saudis warned yesterday).

The last time the world's largest oil and gas drill operator, Seadrill, halted its dividend payment was in 2009, shortly after Lehman had filed and the world was engulfed in a massive depression. Retrospectively, this made sense: the company was struggling not only with depressionary oil prices, but with a legacy epic debt load as can be seen on the chart below. So the fact that the stock of Seadrill collapsed by 20% today following a shocking overnight announcement that it had once again halted its dividend despite what is a far lower debt load than last time, indicates that when it comes to energy companies, the current global economic "recovery" - if one believes the rigged US stock market - is actually worse than the Lehman collapse.

After describing this week's prior two bond auctions as "blistering" and "scorching", we were concerned we would run out of hyperbolic adjectives to describe today's last for the week 7 year auction. As it turns out, our concerns were unfounded, because moments ago the Treasury announced it sold $29 billion in 7 Year paper at a 1.96% yield, a small 0.4 bps tail to the When Issued in an auction that was just modestly weaker than the prior two, relatively speaking, even if in absolute terms the high yield, down from 2.02% last month, was still the lowest since October 2013, and as can be seen on the chart below, is continuing to drop. The Bid to Cover also showed a substantial pick up in interest, jumping to 2.635, the highest since February, and well above the 2.54 TTM average.

Another day, another case of central banks, not one but two this time, dictating "price" action.

The look at the drivers of next week, without using the word manipulation or conspiracy, or referring to how stupid or evil some people may or may not be. 

The growing divergence between equity and credit markets this year have seldom been far from our pages (especially how, over many cycles, credit has led and stocks followed at trend turns), and now it appears Barclays also recognizes this fact. As they note, in 2007, as hints of the financial crisis were unveiled, spreads in the high yield market increased sharply. Meanwhile, the equity market climbed to a new record high. Had equity investors heeded the warning being sent from high yield, significant losses may have been avoided... and currently high yield sell signals suggest equity investors should position defensively!

• Top Trade #1: EUR/$ downside via a one-year EUR/$ put spread.
• Top Trade #2: 10-year US Treasuries above 3% but not below 2% in mid-2015, through cap and floor spreads at zero cost.
• Top Trade #3: Long a Dec-2015 Eurostoxx 50 ‘bull’ call spread.
• Top Trade #4: Long US High Yield credit risk via 5-year CDX HY junior mezzanine tranches.
• Top Trade #5: Long an equity basket of EM crude oil importers (Taiwan, Turkey and India).
• Top Trade #6: Short CHF/SEK.
• Top Trade #7: Bearish Copper relative to Nickel, on supply divergence.
• Top Trade #8: Long US Dollar against a basket of ZAR and HUF.

The word "volatile" comes to mind when reflecting on today's cross-asset class action. US equities dumped into and beyond the US open, decoupling entirely from JPY carry, only to reverse perfectly at the European close and recover all the way back to USDJPY right as the FOMC minutes hit. A kneejerk sent stocks higher but that quickly decoupled also and stocks fell. Small Caps underperformed and are back in the negative year-to-date. Treasury yields were volatile, ramping higher into the US open, rallying post, then whipsawing on FOMC minutes to close 3-4bps higher on the day.The USD was flat on the day despite the surge in USDJPY back above 118. Commodities were a mess with a big dump on Swiss Gold polls, rip higher on Russian buying rumors and dropped again on FOMC (oil and copper followed suit). HY Credit was "bidless" and continues to decouple from stocks (along with VIX).

Major equity / Credit divergences should always be taken very seriously. They were among the best forward looking indicators at almost every major turning point for equities over the last 20 years. Today, the divergence is visible again. The fact that all this is happening while bullish sentiment in the US is at record highs is of particular worry. Everyone is expecting higher equities due to lower yields and depressed food and energy prices. But when everyone is thinking alike, no one is really thinking...