High Yield

Where did all the bears go?  We cannot find more than one person willing to be outright bearish.  What is particularly strange is that the reasons most people are bullish seem to have little, if anything to do with fundamentals – either macro or micro.  The reason for being long that is closest to being “fundamental” is that Europe is muddling through.  We're not sure Europe is muddling through, but in any case, wasn’t the bullish case for US stocks that we were decoupling?  Conspicuously absent as a reason to be long is earnings. It seems as though everyone is reasonably long (though not fully committed), but thinks everyone else is underweight.  It really feels like the “consensus” is that everyone else is underweight so you better be long for when that money comes into the market. The conversations are far more bearish than the positioning.

Amid the lowest NYSE volume of the year (-24% from Friday - OPEX) and pretty much the lowest non-holiday-period volume in 9 years based on Bloomberg's NYSEVOL data, ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) ended the day almost perfectly unchanged underperforming 5Y investment grade and high-yield credit indices on the day as both moved to contract tights (their best levels since early August last year) even as their curves flattened. There has been lots of chatter about how the steepening of the short-end of the European sovereign bond markets (Italian 2s10s for instance) is a sign that all-is-well in the world again, well unfortunately the flattening of the short-end of US IG and HY credit markets sends a rather less positive signal than headlines might care to admit (as jump risk in the short-term remains 'high' relative to bullish momentum in the medium-term). At the same time, vol markets are showing extreme levels of short-term complacency as 1m VIX is almost at record low levels relative to 3m VIX (and diverging today from implied correlation). Broadly speaking , risk assets rallied into the US day session open only to sell off into the European close (with Sovereigns leaking back the most). The afternoon saw risk rallying as the path of least resistance appears to be up all the time there is no news. Stocks ended well off their highs of the day, in line with broad risk assets, as TSY yields rose 3-4bps higher, Oil and Copper 1.5-1.75% higher (outperformed) while Silver and Gold hugged USD weakness at around a 0.5% gain from Friday's close.

The post-European-close rally-monkey was in full force today, with somewhat average (though NYSE volume is 30% lower than last January's average!) volumes in stocks, as ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) made it almost back to unchanged in a post-cash-close squeeze (on notably lower than average trade size). However, close-to-close, the cost of protecting equity and credit (in options volatility, implied correlation, and CDS) all rose (underperformed) significantly. It seems everyone believes everything bad (event-wise) is priced in but perhaps they are missing the reality of mundane macro data and earnings.

Almost six months ago we discussed the dramatic shifts that were about to occur (and indeed did occur) the last time the New York Fed tried to unwind the toxic AIG sludge that is more prosaically known as Maiden Lane II. At the time, the failure of a previous auction as dealers were unwilling to take up even modest sizes of the morose mortgage portfolio was the green light for a realization that even a small unwind of the Fed's bloated balance sheet would not be tolerated by a deleveraging and unwilling-to-bear-risk-at-anything-like-a-supposed-market-rate trading community. Today, we saw the first glimmerings of the same concerns as chatter of Goldman's (and others) interest in some of the lurid loans sent credit reeling. As the WSJ reports, this meant the Fed had to quietly seek confirming bids (BWICs) from other market participants to judge whether Goldman's bid offered value. The discreteness of the enquiries sent ABX and CMBX (the credit derivative indices used to hedge many of these mortgage-backed securities) tumbling with ABX having its first down day since before Christmas and its largest drop in almost two months. The knock-on effect of the potential off-market (or perhaps more reality-based) pricing that Goldman is bidding this time can have (just as it did last time when the Fed halted the auction process as the market could not stand the supply) dramatic impacts as dealers seek efficient (and critically liquid) hedges for their worrisome inventories of junk. The underperformance (and heavy volume) in HYG (the high-yield bond ETF we spend so much time discussing) since the new-year suggests one such hedging program (well timed and hidden by record start-of-year fund inflows from a clueless public which one would have thought would raise prices of the increasingly important bond ETF) as the market's ramp of late is very reminiscent of the pre-auction-fail-and-crash we saw in late June, early July last year as credit markets awoke to the reality of their own balance sheet holes once again.

As volumes this year in stock markets remain significantly below last year's but high yield bond ETF inflows reach record highs, TrimTabs offers some context for the massive relative flows of real cash into checking and savings accounts versus stock and bond mutual fund and ETFs. Not-Charles-Biderman, otherwise known as David Santschi of the now-infamous Bay Area backdrop, explains the incredible statistic that in the first 11 months of last year investors poured more than eight times more money into checking and savings accounts than into Fed-inspired risk assets in general. Even with rates ultra-low, the Fed's efforts to drive speculative flows is dwarfed by investors' aggregate sense of the reality of our tenuous situation as a massive $889bn was poured carefully into mattresses while a measly $109bn went into risk-worthy assets (including bonds). As Santschi concludes, as long as most investors keep hiding most of their money away, the economy is unlikely to get off to the races anytime soon and while we agree from a consumptive demand perspective, any recovery will only be truly sustainable via savings which are being desperately drawn-down by a need to maintain standards of living that are perhaps too much to expect.

Thanks to disappointing macro data early on and better-than-expected European auctions (and ECB not cutting), the EUR went bid early on, accelerate after the Europe close, and stayed that way for most of the day (EURUSD squeeze? or ES-EUR convergence?) ending a one-week highs. Credit markets gapped tighter around their open (thanks to Europe's early strength) but leaked back as the morning wore on. Stocks underperformed credit overall as IG and HY credit rallied into the European close and held gains - while HYG (the high yield bond ETF) significantly underperformed on the day (compressing its NAV premium further despite a modest late day pullback) which should be mildly concerning for bulls (given the size of flows and momentum behind it recently). ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) converged with VWAP and CONTEXT around lunch then pulled higher into the close managing to tag the day-session open but broad risk-drivers did not participate so much (and we saw higher average trade size volume come in covering at the close). Oil is down 2.6% on the week (sub $99) seeing its biggest 2-day drop in a month and while Gold and Silver leaked lower from midday highs, Copper managed to hold onto its gains (now up over 6% on the week). Volume ended about average for the year in NYSE stocks and ES (though still well down from December).

Today saw NYSE trading volumes at their 3rd highest of the year and ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) saw its second highest volume of the year (though both still well below recent averages) as stocks managed marginal gains, outperformed handily by high yield credit. For the sixth day of the last seven ES closed only a smidge from where it opened but average trade size was dramatically higher (its highest since 8/31) which historically has suggested a short-term top (and certainly seems odd heading into tomorrow's European bond auctions). In a similar manner to yesterday, HY17 (the high yield credit index) surged (absolute and relative to ES and HYG) from the European close to US day session close (index RV to Europe and Index arbitrage seems much more of an effect than rerisking. The major Financials were among the best performers today once again (as XLF managed +1.13%) with BofA now up an impressive (if not ridiculous) 24% YTD (and Citi +19%). Perhaps of note is the fact that the major financial CDS rally stalled today with MS, GS, and JPM all leaking a little wider into the close. Treasuries continued their ain't-no-decoupling rally as the 10Y auction went well (beige Book mixed/weak) leaving longer-dated TSY yields near day (and year to date) lows and ES near day highs (sell EUR, buy anything USD-denominated?). The dollar is practically unchanged on the week now as EUR 1.27 (and GBP more so) weakness dragged it up (even as AUD rallied - helping stocks). Copper outperformed among the economically sensitive commodities as Gold gained modestly (slight beat of Silver) and Oil slid back to $101 and remains down on the week as Silver holds over 4% gains. As an aside, from the 12/30/11 close, Gold is up 4.95%, the S&P 500 is up 2.77%, and the Long Bond is down 0.65%.

We did a double take when we read the following lead sentence from a just released Bloomberg report on what is about to take place in China: "China’s stocks regulator will “actively” push pension and housing funds to begin investing in capital markets, and encourage long-term investors such as insurers and corporate pension plans to buy more shares." To paraphrase Lewis Black - we will repeat this, because it bears repeating - "China’s stocks regulator will “actively” push pension and housing funds to begin investing in capital markets, and encourage long-term investors such as insurers and corporate pension plans to buy more shares." And that is the last ditch effort one does when one has no choice but to push "long-term investors" into the last giant ponzi. Of course, this being China, "long-term investors" means anyone at all, and "pushing" ultimately involves either 9MM or a 0.44 caliber. And what was said earlier about mocking mainstream media spin - well, the first opportunity presents itself a few short hours later - when Bloomberg, the same agency that wrote the above report, tells us that "Asian Shares Rise Amid Global Economic Optimism." Odd - no mention of the fact that China is now pushing habitual gamblers, which over there is another name for "investors" into what is openly an invitation (at gunpoint nonetheless) into the latest and greatest bubble. That said, we give this latest artificial attempt to boost stocks a half life of several days max before the SHCOMP plunges to new lows for the year.

NYSE total volume was the lowest for the year today. Almost 20% below December's average and down 10% from Friday's already low volumes, US equity markets managed to limp higher post the European close. Notably, volume in ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) was also the lowest of the year (at around 1.43mm cars vs 2.11mm 50-day average) and what volume there was focused on the European trading session (and right at the close). Today saw the average ES trade-size rise to recent peak levels as we note trade-size picked up into the Europe close (considerably higher average trade size around the European close than normal) and then again at the close. Peaks in average trade-size have often pre-empted turning points in the market and we note that while markets closed quietly unchanged (practically), high yield credit lost ground on the day and broad risk assets (while mostly showing small net changes) did not as a whole rally off the European close lows as enthusiastically as stocks. VIX futures and implied correlation continue to diverge as we note that VIX actually closed higher for the first time in five days.

Equities traded their lowest volume of the week (-19% from yesterday alone). The NFP print this morning provided ammunition for some vol early on but as we drifted into the European close, risk assets in general were pushing lower. Unlike the last few days the circa-Europe-close dip-and-rip only occurred in the equity market today as the USD stayed near its highs and TSYs near their low yields of the day (and high yield credit near its wides of the day) as stocks took off back into the green and meandered either side of VWAP for the afternoon. It seems odd that the afternoon's divergence between TSYs and stocks was not accompanied by Gold or USD weakness (QE hopes) and in fact as we got into the last few minutes, stocks started to push back lower on much larger average trade size but was trapped between VWAP and unchanged on the day. Gold outperformed on the week (+3.4%) just inching out Silver and Oil as they appeared to converge on a 3x beta of the USD 'appreciation' of around 1.2% this week. Treasuries rallied 4-6bps and the curve flattened overall as we saw duration reduction in corporate bonds (with highest quality names (Aaa-Aa3) being net sold). DXY stayed above 81 as the EURUSD scrambled back above 1.27 (down an impressive 1.85% on the week). AUD was the only major to gain relative to the USD on the week (and very marginally). Finally, we saw VIX dropping and stabilize and implied correlation diverged and rose this afternoon which combined with the divergence in risk assets suggests stocks are short-term overdone at best.

We have previously eschewed the constant refrain of any and every talking head who pounds the table on adding to equity risk on the basis of 'low' interest rates - why wouldn't you earn the higher dividend? or how much lower can rates go? However, aside from the drawdown-risk and empirical failure of the stocks-bonds arguments, there are three very pressing reasons currently for reconsidering the status quo of bonds against equities. Volatility in equity markets has been considerably higher than bonds and even at elevated earnings yields, it is no surprise that risk-savvy investors prefer a 'safer' lower-vol yield. Furthermore, when compared to a long-run modeling of business cycle shifts in stocks and high yield credit markets, stocks remain notably expensive to the credit cycle. Simply put, corporate bonds are at best offering better value than stocks if your macro position is bullish (and are forced to put money to work) and at worst suggest being beta-hedged is the best idea (or market-neutral) or in Treasuries.

UPDATE: Denials of the rumor (confirming our earlier note) of a mass refi program has BAC dropping (-3% AH) and ES down around 5pts so far (red on the day).

Late in the day as news broke of Iran nuclear talks, Oil lost some of it sheen and Gold overtook it year-to-date. Gold is now up 3.6% YTD against stocks up 1.9% (and the USD up 0.75%) as we saw stocks on their own today compared to credit markets and broad risk assets. Instead of following yesterday's stability post-Europe, FX (from a USD perspective) continued its uptrend as equities (led by financials - led by BofA on refi rumors) surged into the green as high yield credit, investment grade credit, and high-yield bond ETFs all lost ground on the day. Treasuries did sell-off (directionally correct at least) with stocks rallying but did not move as much as expected on a beta-adjusted basis (even though 30Y is now 16bps wider this year). EURUSD closed at its lows of the day (under 1.28) and Oil under $101.5 at its lows.

The S&P 500 closed practically unchanged today - recovering from decent selloff to a late-Europe-session low - amid volume that was over 30% lower than at the same time last year. Investment grade credit, the high-yield bond ETF HYG, and broad risk assets in general kept pace with ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) but high yield credit (tracked by the HY17 credit derivative index) outperformed considerably - moving to its best levels since late October. This disconnect appeared as much driven by technicals from HY-XOver (Long US credit vs Short EU credit) and HYG vs HY17 (a high premium-to-NAV bond ETF vs relatively cheap high yield spread index) trades as it was a pure risk-on trade. Elsewhere, the USD retraced only marginally the earlier gains of the day (with EUR hanging under 1.2950 by the close) as Treasury yields jumped 5-7bps more (30Y +14bps on the week now) as we can't help but notice the correlation between TSY weakness and EUR strength for a few hours this afternoon (repatriation to pay up for tomorrow's French auction?). Commodities were very mixed with Copper sliding notably (decoupling from its new friend Gold which rose and stabilized this afternoon over $1610) as Oil pushed higher all day (over $103) on Iran news and Silver leaked back this afternoon (under $29.5).

The issue of Germany and its approach to ameliorating the overleveraged balance sheets of its southern neighbors will dictate the direction of sovereign spreads in 2012. The direction of sovereign spreads will also determine the direction of risk premium spreads in the leveraged finance markets— both bonds and loans. Defaults in the leveraged finance market will and should be an afterthought to the systemic risk factors inherent in sovereign and next-of-kin bank credit spreads. Therefore, forecasting default rates should take a backseat to a better understanding of German Kultur and thought that will shape the euro-zone sovereign finance structure in 2012 and beyond. The most recent European Union summit highlighted that we are left with some of the same issues that confronted the great empires prior to World War I—the battle between “English liberalism with its emphasis on individual freedom and self-determination and Prussian socialism with its emphasis on order and authority.”

And so the inevitable has happened: the European currency finally fell below that strange attrractor level of 1.3000 following an Italian 5 year auction that despite the "technical" clarification that it would be of Off The Run bonds, still ended up being the highest rate ever paid for a 5 Year piece of Italian paper. As Reuters explains, the euro slipped versus the dollar on Wednesday after Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year debt, adding to concerns that an EU summit last week had made little progress in tackling the region's debt crisis. More: "Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year paper at its first auction of longer-term debt after the EU moved towards greater fiscal integration at last week's summit, but failed to convince markets it can solve the debt crisis. The average yield at Wednesday's sale compares with an auction rate of 6.29 percent Italy paid a month ago, which was also a euro lifetime record high. Rome sold 3 billion euros of the Sept. 2016 BTP bond, the top of an unusually small range of 2 billion to 3 billion euros for the sale. Italy has trimmed the size of its auctions in reaction to market pressure but it will have to step up issuance in coming months if it is to meet a gross funding goal of around 440 billion euros next year." And result: EURUSD < 1.3000 which means bad things for the record high correlated stock market... and the Christmas Rally.