Yen

Suppose you could print up counterfeit dollars, euros or yen that were identical to the real things. Fun, you think? Here's how it plays out. 

As central banks rush to depreciate their currencies and push yields into negative territory, what's becoming scarce globally is real yield in an appreciating currency.

Three masked men smashed an SUV into the front-windows of The Wells Fargo Museum in San Francisco's financial district at around 230am Tuesday, making off with 10 ounces of "historic gold nuggets." As AP reports, robbers in Northern California have targeted precious metals in museum displays before and the tactics of the heist have marked other recent robberies in the area. The men escaped in a second vehicle, according to KGO, and the vehicle reportedly headed east across the Bay Bridge. Local coin dealers said the robbers may have difficulty selling the nuggets unless they melt them down. No dollar bills, Euros, or Japanese Yen notes were stolen during the robbery.

Today's rambunctiousness in US equity markets as every company (even AAPL admitted this quarter would be more problematic from an FX perspective) rotates from 'weather' excuses to 'currency' excuses is not going to get any better as tonight, yet another world nation entered the 'devalue-or-die' brigade. Singapore's MAS announced a surprise shift in the slope of their policy band - implicitly loosening policy and so the Singapore Dollar dumped over 160 pips against the USD, the biggest drop in almost 3 years, tumbling to its weakest since Mid 2010. Interestingly, against the Japanese Yen this move merely roundtrips SGD strength from yesterday as one wonders who the real enemy in the competitive devaluation game is...

"The Ruble has fallen by 50% in a year. The price of oil has halved, the price of copper, iron ore and many other commodities has tumbled. The Swiss franc has been  de-floored and the uproar was huge. All random events, all part of a pattern. Financial markets are feeling the effects of a pick-up in volatility that has followed the end of Fed QE. While zero rates were augmented with Fed bond-buying, investors went around the world in search of higher yields, in all sorts or assets and currencies. Traders and investors of one kind or another resorted to leverage to reach the yield targets they needed to match their required investment returns. All of which was fine while the party went on forever, but now that it’s ending, the outcome is anything but fine."

It’s not entirely clear what will happen in the near term, but the financial markets are already pushed to extremes by central-bank induced speculation. With speculators massively short the now steeply-depressed euro and yen, with equity margin debt still near record levels in a market valued at more than double its pre-bubble norms on historically reliable measures, and with several major European banks running at gross leverage ratios comparable to those of Bear Stearns and Lehman before the 2008 crisis, we're seeing an abundance of what we call "leveraged mismatches" - a preponderance one-way bets, using borrowed money, that permeates the entire financial system. With market internals and credit spreads behaving badly, while Treasury yields, oil and industrial commodity prices slide in a manner consistent with abrupt weakening in global economic activity, we can hardly bear to watch...

To think that multi-national companies are not complaining to government officials at this very moment is to be fully naïve. We would not doubt, given where the Treasury Secretary is, if he hasn’t been waylaid repeatedly about “doing something” about that “strong dollar.” Unfortunately, he cannot come right out and say that corporatism despises it so the administration, like those before, would prefer it sinking like a rock. Like monetarism, the fiscal side prefers not currency stability but their own, specific brand of instability.

It is well known that Japan faces a demographic crisis, as it's aging population (more than 1 in 4 over 65 years old) drags on economic potential. But at the other end of the age spectrum, Japan has a bigger problem: as Bloomberg's Emily Greenhouse calls it - a libido crisis. The birthrate is falling fast. By 2060, the population is expected to go down by a third, and, by 2100, if trends continue, by 61%. Simply put, there is not enough procreation. We previously noted the fact that young Japanese has stopped having sex, but the situation has got worse and government and economists are looking for solutions: from imposing "handsome taxes" to make it easier for uglier men to get laid, to changing women's attitudes towards sex as "bothersome." However, we suspect this phrase sums up the 'virtual' problem best, "I want to tell them that human women are also great fun!"

Non-bombastic, non-insulting simply straight-forward look at next week's key events and data.  If you are so inclined...

I have told you the US dollar was going up for months.  Some mocked me.  Others insulted me.  So what?  I tell you the dollar's bull market remains intact.  

"It isn’t really about interest rates or “inflation”, obviously as gold is rising as inflation “expectations” dramatically sink here, so much as gold is insurance against central banks being wrong. That seems to be the common theme all over the world ever since June when the ECB placed its desperation and impotence on full display. Everything that has occurred since then has only confirmed the monetary illusion being exactly that, including the US and its central bank’s place at really the central point of the miscalculated insanity."

Since its inception in 2008, easy monetary policy has created very few positive effects for the real economy — and has created considerable (and in some cases unforeseen) negative effects as well. The BIS warns of financial bubbles. While economic policymakers should take a closer look at Japan, China, and yes, the United States, when debating the limits of monetary stimulus and the dangerous nature of financial bubbles; sadly, the discussion is happening too late to be anything more than an intellectual exercise.

A crashing Yen failed to help Japan or fix its economy, but while Japan may now be a lost cause, the Keynesian masterminds of the world will give it another try, and following today's Draghi's announcement, the EURUSD has crashed to the lowest level since 2003, tumbling over 200 pips, and printing below 1.14 moments ago. However, in a clear indication that the party for the USD-bulls may be ending, none other than the US commerce secretary moments ago said the impact of a rising dollar on exports and economic growth bears monitoring.

Different elements are rapidly changing within the global monetary complex...

Laugh if you want to.  Cry if you want to, but the bull market for the US dollar has legs and life.