Central Banks

How much do you think your paper currency will be worth 23 centuries from now? Or even 23 years? Or potentially even 23 months?

China did everything it could to prevent a collapse and it still happened.  How do you think other countries will do?

The upside is ephemeral, illusory or wishful thinking; the downside is real and lasting.

We have reached the apogee of history’s greatest credit inflation. Now we’re hurtling into a prolonged worldwide deflation. You can already see this deflation in the plunge of oil, iron ore, copper and other commodity prices. We are in uncharted waters after nearly 20 years of madcap money printing by the Fed and other central banks. The world’s central banks are finally out of dry powder. They no longer have the means to inflate the global credit and financial bubble. That’s why today’s FOMC meeting is the most crucial inflection point since 1929.

Grant Williams sets the context for tomorrow's FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. To say he is very skeptical of the Fed's ability to continue to control market forces much longer is a gross understatement...

We’ve already gotten a taste of what happens when asset classes finally “adjust” to underlying “demand” with the commodity markets: having operated based on Central Bank money printing for five years, they then wiped out ALL of those gains in six months.

Where most analysis on oil markets tends to fall short is on the depth of analysis vs. reading headlines and group think, the latter of which is heavily shaped by misinformed media and government propaganda.

Soaring junk bond redemptions; rising investment grade (and high yield) yields pressuring corporate buybacks; record corporate leverage and sliding cash flows; Chinese devaluation back with a vengeance; capital outflows from EM accelerating as dollar strength returns; corporate profits and revenues in recession; CEOs most pessimistic since 2012, oh and the Fed's first rate hike in 9 years expected to soak up as much as $800 billion in excess liquidity. To Wall Street's strategists none of this matters: as Bloomberg observes, virtually every single sellside forecasts expects "no end to the bull market."

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

We are living in a time that can only be considered monetary chaos. The media and the policy pundits may focus on the day-to-day zigs and zags of central bank monetary and interest rate policy, but what really needs to be asked is whether or not we should continue to leave monetary and banking policy in the discretionary hands of central banks and the monetary central planners who manage them.

The $100 trillion global bond bubble has begun bursting.

"In short, the age of unconventional monetary policy begun by the 2007-09 financial crisis might not be ending."

- Jon Hilsenrath

We are nearing a crucial inflection point in the worldwide bubble finance cycle that has been underway for more than two decades. To wit, the world’s central banks have finally run out of dry powder. They will be unable to stop the credit implosion which must inexorably follow the false boom.

Massive change is coming but don't expect your local banker to see it coming and let you know about it