Wall Street Journal

Just a few months ago, Hamptons 2nd home-hunting was an elitist's dream. Home sales were surging (highest sicne 2007's peak) even as home prices soared (in the face of bad weather and economic angst). But that has all changed. As Bloomberg reports, sales of luxury homes in the are have tumbled 16% YoY in Q3, prices have plunged 18% YoY, and inventories are surging (up 34%). The reason is simple, as one realtor notes, "the international buyer has been absent."

From the bowels of Australia’s iron ore mines to the top of Dubai’s pointless 100 story office towers, the entire warp and woof of the global economy has been distorted and bloated by the central bank money printing spree of the last two decades, led by the red credit machines of Beijing. Everywhere economies have succumbed to over-building, over-consumption, over-financialization and endless dangerous, unstable speculation. Stated differently, China’s red capitalism is the new black swan. There is nothing rational, stable or sustainable about it.

Already, the big banks (the ones with the closest ties to the Federal Reserve) have begun turning away deposits OR charging them.

In one of the most-watched hearings in historuy on Capitol Hill, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton faces one of the biggest tests of her career – not to mention her presidential campaign – as she testifies before the Select Committee on Benghazi in the House of Representatives. This, of course, is not the first time, but one wonders if she will come out swinging with her "what difference does it make" persona, or be buried in the minutia of her private email server. As WSJ notes, the national response to the attacks that killed four Americans in Benghazi on Sept. 11, 2012, was complicated by secrecy, tragedy and national politics... and the people still want answers.

Today’s task for the Republican establishment... Between now and March, they must settle on a candidate, hope his rivals get out of the race, defeat Trump in one of the first two contests, or effect his defeat by someone like Carson, then pray Trump will collapse like a house of cards. The improbabilities of accomplishing this grow by the week, and will soon start looking, increasingly, like an impossibility - absent the kind of celestial intervention that marked the career of the late Calvin Coolidge.

This trade has become blood-soaked.

Back in February, we noted that NIRP had officially arrived in the US as JP Morgan announced it was preparing to charge some large institutional customers for deposits. This represented a kind of de facto (if not yet de jure) NIRP. Now, a combination of pinched margins and new regulations has led some of the largest financial institutions in the US to penalize corporate and institutional deposits on the way to instituting what amounts to a stealth version of negative interest rates.

The next round of the Crisis beckons. And this time around, the Fed’s hands are tied.

The second tech bubble, one which has seen nearly 200 tech "unicorns" rising out of the ZIRP ashes in the past few years and promptly attaining valuations of over $1 billion, is bursting. WSJ reports that investment bankers cautioned Dropbox that the San Francisco company might be unable to go public at its latest private round "valuation" of $10 billion.

Most of you will be quite familiar with Peter Schiff. Fewer of you will know much about his father, Irwin Schiff, who was posthumously referred to as the “grandfather of the contemporary tax protest movement” in Forbes. Irwin was treated very poorly by his own country, particularly toward the end of his life when, despite being legally blind and dying of cancer, he was not permitted to die in peace amongst family members.

The Donald, crushing the hopes of the status quo, has extended his lead among GOP Primary voters with 25% of the support (up from 21% in September). However, the latest WSJ/NBC poll finds Ben Carson coming on strong with 22% support. Aside from Rubio (13%, up from 11%), and Jeb hovering at 8%, this leaves "the rest" of the crowd lagging horribly with Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and John Kasich looking to go the way of 'the Walker'.

The one-month-ish Treasury Bills that mature November 18th are collapsing. Following comments this morning by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US will run out of cash on November 3rd and his warning of a "terrible" debt limit accident, the 11/18/15 T-Bills have seen yields explode from -1bp to 7bps - an unprecedented 8bps spike as investors panic-sell beyond the deadline. WI 1month bills are over 11bps! As Barclays Joseph Abate warns, "This is the beginning...Nervousness is ratcheting higher”

Capitalism isn’t – wasn’t – the problem. The culprit instead was unsound finance and deeply flawed monetary management. In short, Capitalism cannot function effectively within a backdrop of unfettered cheap finance. Things appear miraculous during the boom, and then the bust discombobulates. Contemporary central bank rate administration essentially abandoned the self-adjusting and regulating market system for determining the price of finance – so fundamental to Capitalism.

Q: Why do you still expect the FOMC to hike rates in December?

A: Because the FOMC leadership has said that a rate hike by the end of the year is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected. Our near-term forecast is similar to theirs, so our baseline is also that they hike.

HINT: Monitor Russia for more clues...