Natural Gas

For the first time in three years and before that the recession, the total volume of freight moved by road, rail, pipeline, inland waterways and air has fallen Y/Y. Meanwhile, on the high seas, the Baltic Dry has collapsed under 400. 

Most Americans will still welcome low prices at the pump. But in the oil boom towns of yesterday, the slowdown is very much being felt - "The jobs are leaving, and if an area gets depopulated, they can't take the houses with them and that's dangerous for the housing market."

While the trend of US trade partners exporting deflation either across the Atlantic or Pacific continues, one name continues to stand out. China.

The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries. The effect from the brewing conflict on oil is murky, but for now it is not having a bullish impact. But what if the current “Cold War” between Saudi Arabia and Iran turned hot?

After two months of sharp currency devaluation, the market was carefully watching last night's China trade data to see if the Yuan debasement had led to a positive trade outcome to the world's second largest economy, and as reported last night, it was not disappointed when China reported a December trade surplus of $60.09 billion from $54.1 billion in November, as a result of exports beating expectations and rising 2.3%, the first increase since June, while imports declined by just 4%, the smallest drop since 2014 despite China importing a record amount of oil, or 33.2 million tons, in December.

Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

Last fall, a 7-inch injection well pipe ruptured 500 feet below the surface of Aliso Conayon in Los Angeles, after ferrying natural gas for six decades. The resulting methane leak is now being called one of the largest environmental disasters since the BP oil spill, has pushed thousands of people out of their homes, and has quickly become the single biggest contributor to climate change-causing greenhouse gas emissions in California. But it's not the first time this well sprang a leak - and Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), which owns and operates the well, knew it.

While the media attention was directed to the shale oil boom in the US, the Saudis created a giant offshore oil project called Manifa. With one single project Manifa added 1 million barrels a day to the world oil glut. Manifa will expand its capacity the coming year, adding a further 500 million barrels a day to world markets.

But here is a giant freebie for all those stupid, clueless oil executives out there in North America.

• David Bowie, musical legend behind Ziggy Stardust, dies at 69 from cancer (Reuters)
• With No Powerball Winners, Jackpot Grows to Estimated $1.3 Billion (ABC)
• Stock Gains Short-Lived as Chinese Volatility Hurts Oil, Metals (BBG)
• China's yuan spikes higher, but stocks tumble (Reuters)
• Arch Coal Files for Bankruptcy (WSJ)
• Yuan Loan Rates Soar in Hong Kong as PBOC Halts Currency's Slide (BBG)
• China stocks close down at lowest level since September (Reuters)
• Fed Eyes Margin Rules to Bolster Oversight (WSJ)

Time Magazine cover says she could lead the only Chinese democracy.  The same woman also said "Violence Is Normal in a Democratic Society"

“This is the equivalent of the BP oil spill on land, in a populated community... If you have a chance to leave, if you’re able to leave... if you have a chance to relocate, do it now. I’m telling you, it’s really critical.”

The mainspring of Islamic extremism and militancy isn’t the moderate and democratic political Islam, because why would people turn to violence when they can exercise their right to choose their rulers? The mainspring of Islamic militancy is the despotic and militant political Islam of the Gulf variety. The Western powers are fully aware of this fact, then why do they choose to support the same forces that have nurtured jihadism and terroris?

The half-life of the latest "market supporting" intervention by the Chinese government: just about 12 hours.

The problem of reaching limits in a finite world manifests itself in an unexpected way: slowing wage growth for non-elite workers. Lower wages mean that these workers become less able to afford the output of the system. These problems first lead to commodity oversupply and very low commodity prices. Eventually these problems lead to falling asset prices and widespread debt defaults. These problems are the opposite of what many expect, namely oil shortages and high prices. This strange situation exists because the economy is a networked system. Feedback loops in a networked system don’t necessarily work in the way people expect.