Capital Markets

On the heels of Sunday's landmark referendum in Greece, all eyes are now on global financial markets and how the European Central Bank intends to prevent contagion in the event Greece exits the currency bloc. 

Just out from Reuters:

FINANCE MINISTERS "WOULD NOT KNOW WHAT TO DISCUSS" AFTER EMERGING GREEK 'NO' VOTE-EURO ZONE OFFICIAL

May we suggest containing the fallout, whether in capital markets or in the resurgent mood in the other PIIGS, as a primary topic?

“If all of a sudden one member leaves, it creates a precedent, and maybe suddenly casts some doubt on the long-term future of the monetary union.”

“There is no blueprint for how a country exits the euro and redenominates [and] that’s going to create all kinds of uncertainty in Europe.”

China has moved in the direction of direct intervention in its flagging equity markets, although it appears Beijing will try to orchestrate a “private” sector (whatever that means in China) solution first before going the nuclear route with the central bank’s balance sheet. As Bloomberg reports, the country’s largest brokerages are teaming up to invest nearly $20 billion in “blue chip” Chinese equities.

Earlier this week the embattled Greeks delivered still more body blows to the rotten regime of Keynesian central banking and the crony capitalist bailout state to which it is conjoined. By defaulting on its IMF loan, walking away from the troika bailout program and taking control of its insolvent domestic banking system, Alexis Tsipras and his band of political outlaws have shattered a giant illusion.

Hedges accounted for 15% of Q1 revenue for nearly half of North American E&P companies, Bloomberg reports. "Now the safety net is going away."

Buyout firms conducted 97 stock offerings in the second quarter, more than in any other three-month period. "It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group. Her disturbing punchline: "The insiders - those with the most knowledge - are finding this a very good time to take some money off the table." In an echo of Leon Black, Frank Maturo, vice chairman of equity capital markets at UBS AG, said, “Private equity is selling everything that’s not bolted down."

Investors are losing money, which strikes us as largely inevitable with asset prices where they are and economic growth and profits on a downward trajectory. Losing the least amount of money may be the best source of success this year.

The Export-Import Bank died last night when its charter expired. After 81 years, what is commonly known as Boeing’s Bank is headed toward Washington’s trash bin. When Congress returns it could revive Ex-Im, which primarily subsidizes big business exports. But a proper burial for what Barack Obama once called “corporate welfare” would save Americans money, reduce economic injustice, and promote economic growth. Ex-Im’s closure is a very rare victory for the good guys in Washington. Crony capitalism is running rampant in America, undermining confidence in a market economy.

Referendum is a CYA by Tsipras & Syriza, but a deal is by no means the end of anything...

After soaring exponentially over 100% in the past 12 months, amid spiking margin debt for illiterate farmers and housewives, Chinese regulators appear upset that their stock market 'wealth creation' model is failing hard. CSRC just released a statement clarifying why it is happening ("clearly profit-taking"); who is to blame ("The Government hopes investors can make independent judgement; Don't believe or follow negative rumors against Chinese economic development,"); and what to do next - Buy because it has "ample liquidity to meet investor needs." The regulator ends with a stunner - demanding investors "act rationally."

As we noted last night, for a whole lot of time nothing at all can happen under the guise of "containment"... and then everything happens all at once. Because not even two full days after Greece activated the "Grexit" emergency protocol, leading to capital controls, and a frozen banking system and stock market, moments ago the NYT reported that the default wave has jumped the Atlantic and has hit Puerto Rico whose governor Alejandro García Padilla, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

As we previously noted, liquidity is there when you don't need it, and it promptly disappears once it is in demand. Consider it "cocktease capitalism." If liquidity lasts longer than 4 hours, call the CFTC because you may be experiencing a spoof. Right now, the ultimate spoof is setting up as the credit default swap market collapses, and a global bond market margin call is just around the corner.

"The growing size of the asset management industry may have increased the risk of liquidity illusion: market liquidity seems to be ample in normal times, but vanishes quickly during market stress. This liquidity may be artificial and less robust in the event of market turbulence." So what's the solution? Unfortunately there isn't one. Instead, fund managers are simply resorting to emergency liquidity lines with banks which is just another manifestation of using cheap cash to delay the Schumpeterian endgame scenario which, if ever allowed to play out, will finally purge capital markets, reset the system, and free the world from the nefarious clutches of central bankers gone mad with delusions of Keynesian grandeur.