Turkey

“We assume [the Russian buildup in Syria is] being coordinated with the Iranians. What we are seeing now is that there is some sort of Iran nexus."

"They were very busy over the weekend"...

"Possible Actions: Publicize presence of transiting (or externally focused) extremist groups in Syria, not limited to mention of Hamas and PIJ. Publicize Syrian efforts against extremist groups in a way that suggests weakness, signs of instability, and uncontrolled blowback. The SARG,s argument (usually used after terror attacks in Syria) that it too is a victim of terrorism should be used against it to give greater prominence to increasing signs of instability within Syria."

"When central bankers start talking like FX strategists, it can signal something important"...

A problem can turn into an opportunity if tackled with a clear mind and a kind heart; seldom can it be solved with fear; and never, ever with hate.

With both Russia and Iran seemingly prepared to do what's necessary to ensure Bashar al-Assad isn't toppled in Syria, John Kerry admits that the US strategy of brining about regime change in Damascus is now in serious jeopardy. Speaking from London on Saturday, Kerry attempted to hang on to the “Assad must go” narrative, but in what might fairly be described as the most conciliatory language yet, Washington’s top diplomat essentially admitted that the timetable for Assad’s exit is now completely indeterminate. Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran are set to hash out Syria's future seemingly without any input from the Americans.

Non-bombasitc overview of the investment climate.  No, the sky is not falling.  This is not the end of days.  

Winston Churchill famously said in 1939: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest." In making ISIS, not Assad, public enemy No. 1, Putin has it right. It is we Americans who are the mystery inside an enigma now.

Ordinary Americans frequently ask why politicians and government officials appear to be so obtuse, rarely recognizing what is actually occurring in the country. That is partly due to the fact that the political class lives in a bubble of its own creation, but it might also be because many of America’s leaders actually accept that there is an unelected, unappointed, and unaccountable presence within the system that actually manages what is taking place behind the scenes. That would be the American deep state. America’s deep state is completely corrupt: it exists to sell out the public interest, and includes both major political parties as well as government officials.

"There are modern weapons that the regime didn't previously have, be they rocket launchers or air to ground to missiles."

“Normally when one route gets blocked or more difficult, migrants’ first choice is to return to an old established route. It is likely that some people will look again at the central Mediterranean route from Libya — we can predict a spike there — and people will be working on rival Balkan routes as we speak."

While influential voices like the Pope are correct that this is a travesty, the policies promoted by him and other government officials will only make this worse. Offering assistance to migrants by rescuing them when they become troubled or allowing migrants to remain without changing the underlying bureaucratic issue will only create greater incentives for more and more people to take the same dangerous routes. Risk compensation has to be considered — the greater the safety mechanisms in place, the more risky the behavior will become. Unfortunately, the current solutions presented by officials will likely result in boats even more overloaded with people and even greater numbers traversing dangerous jungle passes.

"The tourist group of 22 had parked their four four-by-four vehicles off road for a barbecue near the Bahariya oasis, a tourist site in the western desert, when army aircraft suddenly began shelling them from above"...

Europe's refugee crisis is getting worse by the day. Less than 24 hours after Germany announced it would impose border controls with Austria, followed promptly by the Czech Republic, Slovenia and now the Netherlands, German vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel predicted that as many as 1 million refugees may arrive by the end of the year as other nations moved to fortify their frontiers. In the meantime, however, Europe is dramatically escalating measures to halt the influx and as AFP reported earlier today, the European Union has now approved military action against human traffickers in the Mediterranean Sea.

Having traded above $46 on Friday, WTI Crude is back to a $43 handle as it appears Iran's price cut, as we detailed here, sparked demand from China and India driving up Iran exports to 1 million barrels per day.