Turkey

Courtesy of the following chart by BofA, we have the answer: while for the most part of 2015, the move in the price of oil was a combination of both supply and demand, the most recent plunge has been entirely a function of what now appears to be a global economic recession, one which will get far worse if the Fed indeed hikes rates as it has repeatedly threatened as it begins to undo 7 years of ultra easy monetary policy.

One of the big problems with China's FX move is that although they've "only" seen a 3% currency fall (in the onshore Yuan) since their announcement last week, as Deutsche's Jim Reid explains... others have subsequently followed suit either deliberately or via market pressure. Emerging Market FX has been falling for 9 straight weeks but the last 2 have seen a dramatic escalation in the carnage...

"I have learnt from history that it is very hard working out what the trigger is. In 2008, it was the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered a credit crunch. Now it could be a major event in Turkey or a default of the Brazilian oil company Petrobras or some event in Malaysia. But if I have to pick one I would say it is Turkey introducing capital controls. Such controls will mean that Turkey will not pay back principals amounting to 400 Bio. $ and the interests on it." - Russell Napier

What began in early June with a surprisingly strong showing at the ballot box for the pro-Kurdish HDP has now ended precisely where many knew it would: with new elections.

Perhaps the biggest surprise about the overnight Chinese stock rout is which followed the lowest manufacturing PMI since March 2009, is that it happened despite repeat sellside pleas for a PBOC RRR cut as soon as this weekend: usually that alone would have been sufficient to push the market back into the green, and it almost worked when in the afternoon session stocks rebounded after dropping as much as 4.7% below the "hard" floor of 3500, but then a second bout of selling just before the close took Chinese stocks right back to the lows with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,507, down 4.3% on the day, having wiped out the entire 18% rebound from July 8 when the PBOC first threatened both sellers and shorters with arrest.

Turkey is rapidly descending into chaos on all fronts. With the lira in free fall and the politically-motivated violence escalating, one prominent lawmaker is calling for martial law ahead of new elections which could plunge the country further into civil war.

Just one day after allowing the tenge to fall sharply in the interbank market and no longer able to take the pain from plunging crude prices, Kazakhstan moved to a free float for its currency overnight, causing the tenge to plunge by a quarter.

Turkey’s lira is once again in free fall, after testing all-time lows against the dollar during multiple sessions of late as political turmoil and civil war wreak havoc on the currency. As BofAML notes, "now that the CBT has left rates unchanged and announced that it will largely rely on selling more FX to tame volatility in FX market while waiting Fed to hike first, TRY still remains a fair game."

You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen.  The truth is that one is happening right now.  All over the world, stock markets are already crashing...

The central bank has injected new capital into the China Development Bank (CDB), which provides medium and long term financing to major national projects, in a bid to reinforce its capital adequacy.

Given the carnage unfolding across EM currencies and the myriad headwinds the world's emerging economies face going forward, it should come as no surprise that sentiment has turned decisively negative. Is it time to be a contrarian? BofAML thinks so.

In the event you were becoming concerned that the U.S. government might be backing away from its longstanding policy of endless violence, militarism and bloodshed, fear not. If we know one thing for sure, it’s that defense contractors and the military-intelligence-industrial complex must earn. And continue to earn it will.

Political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit Turkey's currency hard and on Tuesday, the central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, PM Davutoglu's chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

“The Americans allowed ISIS to rise to power because they wanted to get Assad out from Syria. But they didn’t anticipate that the results would be so far beyond their control.” This was not, then, a US intelligence failure as such. Rather, the US failure to to curtail the rise of ISIS and its likely destabilization of both Iraq and Syria, was not due to a lack of accurate intelligence? - ?which was abundant and precise? - ?but due to an ill-conceived political decision to impose ‘regime change’ on Syria at any cost. We can’t come up with any other logical conclusion. Either way, such people have no business running the affairs of these United States, and their actions are merely increasing instability and violence across the planet. The longer they remain in charge with no accountability, the more dangerous this world will become.

In what looks like the latest escalation in a string of wartime crackdowns, Turkey has declared a curfew for citizens of Lice, a district of Diyarbakir province. As Bloomberg reports, “citizens are prohibited from going out on streets from 9pm tonight until 7am on Tuesday.” Additionally, “the Governor of Diyarbakir [has] declared ‘special security zones’ in Silvan, Lice, Kulp and Dicle,” citing the PKK “terror” threat.