Turkey

Following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council requested by Turkey - to explain its actions - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a statement to the press, urging, just as Obama and Hollande just did, no escalation between the two nations and backing Turkey's version of events - that Russia did indeed violate Turkish airspace.

It appears the "hostile act" in Turkey was not enough to keep the dip-buyers from bidding The Dow back into the green for the day. Nasdaq and the S&P are still lagging... as is the credit market.

With 11 days passed since the horrific actions in Paris, French President Francois Hollande arrived at the White House to discuss the conflict with President Barack Obama, likely asking for greater cooperation (with Russia - who Hollande will meet Thursday) in the battle against ISIS. Obama and Hollande made no statements as they began their meeting in the Oval Office but we can only imagine Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet over its border with Syria produced fresh complications for the international campaign against Islamic State.

Some have suggested Vladmir Putin's first retaliation for the Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter jet would be to cut off gas supplies (which represent 57% of Turkey's supply). With Russia Defense Minister stating that the "downing of the Russian warplane is a 'hostile act'," adding that the defense ministry is "devising a set of measures to respond to the incident," it seems taking the 'nuclear option' of cutting off 20% of Erdogan's entire energy supply would be a strong first non-lethal non-World-War-3-starting step.

On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!

Futures tumble and bond yields slide following news that Turkish F-16s have taken down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet near the Syria border. Russia confirms its plane was downed but claims the plane was over Syrian territory for the entire flight.

Update: Alleged footage of the crash site inside.

"If the strike is confirmed, the TOW missile was most likely supplied through the same US and Turkey-backed logistics programme that has reportedly been supplying Alwiya al-Ashar." 

PUTIN SAYS LOSS OF RUSSIAN WARPLANE TODAY DUE TO BACKSTABBING
PUTIN SAYS INCIDENT TO HAVE SERIOUS CONSQUENCES FOR TURKEY TIES
PUTIN: OIL FROM ISLAMIC STATE IS BEING SHIPPED TO TURKEY
PUTIN SAYS ISLAMIC STATE GETS CASH BY SELLING OIL TO TURKEY

• Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border, Moscow denies airspace violation (Reuters)
• Investors seek safety in bonds, yen after Turkey downs Russian jet (Reuters)
• Donald Trump Is Not Backing Down (BBG)
• Uber's Exposure May Grow as U.S. Drivers Seek 57.5 Cents a Mile (BBG)
• U.S. issues global travel alert as manhunt continues for Paris attackers (Reuters)
• Stung by Oil, Distressed-Debt Traders See Worst Losses Since '08 (BBG)

It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

A reasonable argument can be made that the temperament of the USA is worse than that of Germany in 1932. We’re more foolish, feckless, and savage, our politics more ridiculous, and the wave we’re riding is much more dangerous.

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