Turkey

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Frontrunning: December 3





  • Mario Draghi Is About to Become the World's Market Risk Manager (BBG)
  • Five Things to Ask Mario Draghi From Negative Rates to QE (BBG)
  • Leaving behind baby and bombs, couple sows panic in California (Reuters)
  • Couple's motive in California rampage a mystery for police, family (Reuters)
  • In Grim Ritual, Barack Obama Again Calls for Stricter Gun Control After Mass Shooting (WSJ)
  • Islamic State Defeat Impossible Without Ground Force, Kerry Says (BBG)
  • OPEC States Push for Output Cuts in Face of Saudi Opposition (BBG)
 
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European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi





Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

 
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Leaked Memo Reveals EU Plan To Suspend Schengen For Two Years





"Where in such cases the overall functioning of the area without internal border control is put at risk, and insofar as the exceptional circumstances constitute a serious threat to public policy or internal security within the area without internal border control or within parts thereof, the period for the reintroduction of internal border control may be extended up to a total maximum of two years."

 
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Visualizing The Greatest Economic Collapses In History





The very first major economic collapse in recorded history occurred in 218-202 BC when the Roman Empire experienced money troubles after the Second Punic War. As a result, bronze and silver currencies were devalued. As HowMuch.net depicts in the video below economic collapses date back thousands of years. While many countries today still feel the effects of the most recent Global Financial Crisis, it is important to note that economic troubles are not unique to the present-day, but rather date back to some of the oldest civilizations.

 
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Turkey's Geopolitical Value





Turkey is the next key region in this conflict, since the only alternative gas pipeline that supplies Russia, and comes from Asia (Nabucco), passes through Turkey. Future conflicts between Turkey and Russia will be part of the Russian strategy within the region. 

 
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The Deep State & The War On Cash





If we are forced to keep our money in the bank... and cash is outlawed... the Deep State will have total economic control over us all.

 
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UK Passes Vote To Begin Syria Airstrikes





And just like that another country has decided it would send its fighter planes in the already congested skies above Syria, when moments ago the UK parliament decided, in a 397 to 223 vote, to begin airstrikes on Syria.

 
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Syria Decoded: Explaining The Conflict In One Infographic





Decoding the war in Syria is not for the faint of heart. For those looking to make sense of it all, we present the following infographic which should go some ways towards untangling what has become one of the most complex, convoluted wars in recent memory.

 
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An Angry Iraq Demands Security Council Investigation Into "Criminals" Smuggling ISIS Crude





"The US Security Council is requested to form committees to put in effect the previously adopted resolutions on smuggling. According to said resolutions, all involved in these activities, be they individuals, companies or states, will be branded as criminals."

 
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Presenting The 2015/2016 Geopolitical Heat Map





If you follow geopolitics, you might have noticed that many of the world’s emerging markets are beset with fractious political dynamics, violence, protests, and any number of other tail risks that could at any time mushroom into black swan events with ramifications for the developed world. As we head into 2016, it’s worth taking stock of the geopolitical events that have shaped EM in 2015 and it's also worth cataloguing what we know about the landscape for the coming year.

 
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The Emerging Market Growth Model Is "Broken"; RIP EM





"Emerging economies’ growth prospects look damaged in several respects. The central fact facing EM is the negative external shock that results from weak global trade growth and the collapse of Chinese import growth. This brings to an irreversible end the period of rapid, investment-led Chinese growth and strong global trade growth which had supplied EM with a once-in-a-generation positive external shock during the years between 2002 and 2013."

 
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US Is "In Cahoots With ISIS," Iraqis Swear: "It Is Not In Doubt"





“It is not in doubt. ISIS is almost finished. They are weak. If only America would stop supporting them, we could defeat them in days.”

 
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