Turkey

The Wars in the Middle East and North Africa Are NOT Just About Oil ... They're Also About GAS

Weekend Mideast News Roundup

The Syrian-Turkish artillery exchanges are becoming a nearly daily tradition: first on Wednesday, when NATO member countries had to be woken up late at night at the request of Turkey to opine on whether Syria had breached Article 4 (leading to a lot fo harsh language by Hillary Clinton), then again on Friday, and now on Sunday, when Syria, (or at least various Al Qaeda factions inside of it, presumably not those endorsed by Turkey) is once again provoking Turkey by firing into the same location as on the previous two occasions, leading to the inevitable Turkish retaliation. All this of course is happening as Turkey deploys ever more military at its Syria border. One of these days, after the latest Syrian 'provocation', Turkey will just snap and invade, taking advantage of the Bill recently passed in Parliament which gives the country permission to invade Syria if it so chooses in retaliation, and of course of NATO's unconditional backstop. And just to add spice to the situation, an unidentified drone will quietly fall out of the skies just because.

There is a popular belief in the Middle East that Washington’s foreign policy, particularly as it relates to this precarious region, is largely driven by America’s dependency on, and insatiable appetite for Arab oil.  One can make a good argument for that. Had Syria been a major oil producing country chances are the US would have already dispatched military forces to impose a pax Americana and to put a stop to the horrific fighting that has been slowly, but without any doubt, ripping Syria apart and dismantling the infrastructures that make the Syrian state what it is today. Even if the war was to end today it would take years for Syria to return to its pre-war position from an economic and military perspective.

It seems like it was only yesterday that crude plunged ahead of the first presidential debate as the escalation between Turkey and Syria hit a fever pitch, with Syria supposedly firing shell into Turkey and Turkey relatiating promptly, as it concurrently summoned NATO and demanded an Article 4 redress while passing a bill allowing its military to conduct cross-border operations in Syria, essentially giving itself a carte blanche to invade Syria without declaring outright war. Today, 48 hours later, Turkey may just get the opportunity to execute on this brand new law. Reuters reports that "the Turkish military returned fire after a mortar bomb fired from Syria landed in countryside in southern Turkey, the state-run Anatolian news agency reported the governor of Hatay province as saying on Friday. Turkish artillery bombarded Syrian military targets on Wednesday and Thursday in response to shelling by Syrian forces that killed five Turkish civilians further east along the border." Ignore that the official plotline said that Syria "apologized" for its offense, even as "an online video purporting to be from Jabhat al-Nusra, a jihadist group accused of ties to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility."

Precious metals have all run up with the recent loose money policies enacted by various governments.  Clearly the market darling of late is silver which is now gaining favour in Asia for its value appeal.  Spot silver traded in New York has risen by 27% since the end of June, while the price of spot gold has increased by a meek 12%. Analysts say future Indian demand is key for silver’s price to climb. Futures contracts for silver at India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, rocketed 30% in September compared with July, while volumes fell by 10% for gold futures contracts over the same period. Indian rupee weakness sent gold prices in rupees to an all time high this year, while silver never exceeded the record it hit last April. Rupee-denominated silver is currently being quoted around 20% below the record. Indian investors have ceased purchasing because the 2 weeks ending Oct. 15th is regarded as inauspicious.  The buying will commence and peak during the week ahead of the Hindu festival of Diwali on November 13th. In China, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures were up 29% at the end of September verses the end of June, while gold climbed 13%, according to data from the exchange's website.

The market is so focused on this morning's BLS number it has completely ignored the latest round of Reuters "news" (after their last two market-testing, unsourced "exclusives" about European developments were roundly refuted nobody can blame it) on how the OMT will proceed once operational (assuming of course Spain ever requests an activation of the mechanism that has allowed it to consider not requesting it). So, on to the thing of importance via BBG: expectations is for a NFP print of 115,000 and an unemployment rate of 8.2%. Any major surprises to either side will likely be risk negative. The unemployment rate has held above 8% level for 43 consecutive months; U.S. labor force participation rate last month declined to 63.5%, lowest since Sept. 1981. Back to Europe, a possible bailout for Spain is not imminent, a European Union official said, as concerns grow over the country’s ability to reach its deficit-reduction targets. The German recession accelerates as factory orders fell 1.3% in August, more than forecast. Switzerland’s foreign-currency reserves rose to a record 429.3 billion francs at the end of September from 420.8 billion francs at the end of August.Around the world: the Bank of Japan held off from more easing after adding to stimulus last month; shoppers from China’s mainland curbed spending at Hong Kong luxury stores during the Golden Week holiday.

Just out from the WSJ:

• Turkey's parliament has approved a bill authorizing the military to conduct cross-border operations in Syria, a day after a deadly shelling from Syrian territory killed five civilians

So, just how is this different to war? And how does NATO, and specifically Article 5 feel about this? What about Russia and China?

Via Nato:

The most recent shelling on 3 October 20l2, which caused the death of five Turkish citizens and injured many, constitutes a cause of greatest concern for, and is strongly condemned by all Allies.

 

In the spirit of indivisibility of security and solidarity deriving from the Washington Treaty, the Alliance continues to stand by Turkey and demands the immediate cessation of such aggressive acts against an Ally, and urges the Syrian regime to put an end to flagrant violations of international law.

Following this morning's reported shelling of a Turkish town (from Syrian lands):

• *NINE INJURED AS SHELL FROM SYRIA LANDS IN TURKISH TOWN: NTV

The Turkish foreign ministry has held emergency talks and, according to Zaman, Turkey has now begun firing 'warning' shots into Syria and 'the bombardment continues to be heavy'.

• *TURKISH ARTILLERY BOMBARDS SYRIA IN WARNING, ZAMAN REPORTS

And it would appear things are escalating:

• *TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS NATO AFTER SYRIA BORDER SHELLING

Somewhere deep in the bowels of the world’s Western central banks lie vaults holding gargantuan piles of physical gold bars… or at least that’s what they all claim.

Our analysis of the physical gold market shows that central banks have most likely been a massive unreported supplier of physical gold, and strongly implies that their gold reserves are negligible today. If Frank Veneroso’s conclusions were even close to accurate back in 1998 (and we believe they were), when coupled with the 2,300 tonne net change in annual demand we can easily identify above, it can only lead to the conclusion that a large portion of the Western central banks’ stated 23,000 tonnes of gold reserves are merely a paper entry on their balance sheets – completely un-backed by anything tangible other than an IOU from whatever counterparty leased it from them in years past. At this stage of the game, we don’t believe these central banks will be able to get their gold back without extreme difficulty, especially if it turns out the gold has left their countries entirely. We can also only wonder how much gold within the central bank system has been ‘rehypothecated’ in the process, since the central banks in question seem so reluctant to divulge any meaningful details on their reserves in a way that would shed light on the various “swaps” and “loans” they imply to be participating in. We might also suggest that if a proper audit of Western central bank gold reserves was ever launched, as per Ron Paul’s recent proposal to audit the US Federal Reserve, the proverbial cat would be let out of the bag – with explosive implications for the gold price.... We realize that some readers may scoff at any analysis of the gold market that hints at “conspiracy”. We’re not talking about conspiracy here however, we’re talking about stupidity. After all, Western central banks are probably under the impression that the gold they’ve swapped and/or lent out is still legally theirs, which technically it may be. But if what we are proposing turns out to be true, and those reserves are not physically theirs; not physically in their possession… then all bets are off regarding the future of our monetary system.

26 times the GDP of Vermont!

John Taylor, founder and CEO of the world's largest FX hedge fund, spoke with Bloomberg TV this morning and was his typically clarifying - if not sanguine - self when it comes to prospects in Europe and the US. Stating that he'll "probably always be a bear on the Euro", Taylor added that it is "hard to look at the European situation and see a cloudy sky become clear," and while there has been noisy swings in the movements of currencies of late, "the reason the euro is up is because the dollar is down - two guys have done this: Draghi and Bernanke." Ranging from FX to volatility, Taylor opines on the time-varying correlation of the weak euro with a strong US equity market and notes, however, that "the equity market is not showing any legs."

The first concern of the Emir of Qatar is the prosperity and security of the tiny kingdom.  To achieve that, he knows no limits. Stuck between Iran and Saudi Arabia is Qatar with the third largest natural gas deposit in the world.  The gas gives the nearly quarter of a million Qatari citizens the highest per capita income on the planet and provides 70 percent of government revenue.  How does an extremely wealthy midget with two potentially dangerous neighbors keep them from making an unwelcomed visit?  Naturally, you have someone bigger and tougher to protect you. Of course, nothing is free.  The price has been to allow the United States to have two military bases in a strategic location.  According to Wikileak diplomatic cables, the Qataris are even paying sixty percent of the costs. Having tanks and bunker busting bombs nearby will discourage military aggression, but it does nothing to curb the social tumult that has been bubbling for decades in the Middle Eastern societies.  Eighty-four years ago, the Moslem Brotherhood arose in Egypt because of the presence of foreign domination by Great Britain and the discontent of millions of the teaming masses yearning to be free.  Eighty-four years later, the teaming masses are still yearning. 

Curious what geopolitical developments traders are looking at? Here is a complete summary, in under 30 seconds, courtesy of the Chairman of the Fermentation committee.