Puerto Rico

Because diluting the paper currency through endless global central-bank printing is obviously not enough to boost corporate top and bottom lines, next up on the dilution wagon are the corporate "rewards programs" which have decided to join the fray and are kind enough to advise honored clients their point purchasing power is about to be diluted by "a modest" 10%-15%. First on deck: Hertz. To wit: "in light of rising costs, we find it necessary to implement our first reward redemption point increase since 2008. Beginning October 1, 2013, point redemption levels for Rewards will increase a modest 10-15% in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico and U.S.V.1."

Good news appaears (for now) to not be bad news for stocks but it is bad news for bonds as they sell-off modestly on the best beat in initial claims in 3 months and the lowest absolute (pre-revision next week) level since January 2008. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 20 were in Puerto Rico (4.9), New Jersey (3.6), Connecticut (3.5), Alaska (3.4), California (3.4), Pennsylvania (3.4), New Mexico (3.2), Nevada (2.9), Virgin Islands (2.9), Illinois (2.8), New York (2.8), Oregon (2.8), and Rhode Island (2.8). So these are pre-recessionary levels of jobless claims and extended claims continue to slide (and Challenger this morning was positive) - but how does this exuberant job situation fit with the dismal economic data? Perhaps this?

We feel that now there is a Bermuda Triangle of economics - a space where everything tends to disappear without radar contact, a black hole in which rationality and science is replaced by hope, superstition and nonsense pundits pretending to understand the real drivers of the economy. The Bermuda Triangle in real life runs from Bermuda to Puerto Rico to Miami. The Economic Bermuda Triangle (EBT) one runs from high stock market valuations to high unemployment to low growth/productivity. There is a myth that the sunken Atlantis could be in the middle of this triangle. It has been renamed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to make it suit the black hole's main premise of ensuring there is a fancy name for what is essentially the same economic recipe: print and spend money, then wait and pray for better weather. The EBT is getting harder and harder to justify - if for nothing else because the constant reminders of crisis keep us all defensive and non-committed to investing beyond the next quarter. We all naively think we can exit the "risk-on" trade before anyone else. We are due for a new crisis. We have governments and central banks proactively pursuing bubbles. A long time ago, policymakers entered a one-way street where reversing is, if not illegal, then impossible.

• Berezovsky Died of Hanging Without Struggle, Police Say (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF (BBG)
• China pledges more investments to Africa (FT)
• BOJ's Kuroda signals targeting longer-dated JGBs (Reuters)
• North Korea orders artillery to be combat ready, targeting U.S. bases (Reuters)
• Supreme Court to take up gay marriage for the first time (Reuters)
• U.S. Cracks Down on 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
• Japanese courts press Abe on electoral reform (FT)
• Vietnam accuses China of attack on fishermen in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Italy's High Court Overturns Knox Acquittal (WSJ)
• Facebook’s Zuckerberg Said to Explore Forming Political Group (BBG)

There is one problem with relentlessly ramping markets (whether due to four years of liquidity injections by the Fed, or due to four years of liquidity injections by the Fed) - they make all those who by definition have to be hedged, seem stupid by comparison. In this case, this means that for the fifth year in a row, the vast majority of brand name hedge funds are once again underperforming the S&P, even though most of them have shifted to the highest net long exposure in history, while charging their increasingly more angry investors 2 and 20 for the privilege of underperforming the most micromanaged asset of all - the S&P500, and its unpaid portfolio manager, Ben Bernanke. And while there are three certain things in life: death, taxes and Paulson being one of the worst performers in the world (perhaps he is moving to Puerto Rico not to avoid paying taxes but to escape furious LPs), as he indeed is for the third year running what is most surprising is that through the middle of March, according to HSBC, every single brand name hedge funds is once again underperforming the S&P.

The grind lower in initial jobless claims continues, which from an upwardly revised 342k (was 340K) last week, declined to 332K in the most recent week ended March 9, on expectations of an increase to 350K. This was the third consecutive beat in a row and the lowest total print since January, which in turn takes it all the way back to January 2008. Continuing claims were also better than expected, dropping from an upwardly-revised 3113K, to 3024K, on expectations of a 3090K print. According to the BLS, unlike the last time we had an abnormally low print, no states were estimated this time around.

• Cardinals head to conclave to elect pope for troubled Church (Reuters)
• Hyperinflation 'Unthinkable' Even With Bold Easing: Abe (Nikkei)
• Ryan Plan Revives '12 Election Issues (WSJ)
• Italy 1-yr debt costs highest since Dec after downgrade (Reuters)
• Republicans to unveil $4.6tn of cuts (FT) - Obama set to dismiss Ryan plan to balance budget within decade
• CIA Ramps Up Role in Iraq (WSJ)
• Hollande Hostility Fuels Charm Offensive to Show He’s No Sarkozy (BBG)
• SEC testing customized punishments (Reuters)
• Judge Cans Soda Ban  (WSJ)
• Hungary Lawmakers Rebuff EU, U.S. (WSJ)
• Even Berlusconi Can’t Slow Bulls Boosting Euro View (BBG) - luckily the consensus is never wrong
• Funding for Lending ‘put on steroids’ (FT)
• Investigators Narrow Focus in Dreamliner Probe (WSJ)
• With new group, Obama team seeks answer to Karl Rove (Reuters)

Departing a socialist regime to avoid paying taxes is not just a French thing anymore: Bloomberg reports that one of the most famous hedge fund managers of the late 2000s, if not so much recently, John "Boricua" Paulson "is exploring a move to Puerto Rico, where a new law would eliminate taxes on gains from the $9.5 billion he has invested in his own hedge funds, according to four people who have spoken to him about a possible relocation." In moving to Puerto Rico, Paulson would merely be the latest person to avoid paying any taxes associated with Paulson & Company: virtually every other investor in Paulson's hedge funds also has no taxes to worry about, for a far simpler reason: taxes are generally incurred on profits, not three years in a row of relentless losses.

The U.S. health care system is a giant money making scam that is designed to drain as much money as possible out of all of us before we die.  In the United States today, the health care industry is completely dominated by government bureaucrats, health insurance companies and pharmaceutical corporations. At this point, our health care system is a complete and total disaster.  Health care costs continue to go up rapidly, the level of care that we are receiving continues to go down, and every move that our politicians make just seems to make all of our health care problems even worse. At the same time, hospital administrators, pharmaceutical corporations and health insurance company executives are absolutely swimming in huge mountains of cash.  Unfortunately, this gigantic money making scam has become so large that it threatens to collapse both the U.S. health care system and the entire U.S. economy.

It is common knowledge by now that the US has a student loan problem. Specifically, a subprime-sized, student loan default problem, which as was reported last year, has now surpassed a 23% default rate at "for profit" institutions. Yet as all statistical measures, this one too deals in means and medians: very boring, impersonal metrics. Where the truly stunning data emerge is when one performs a granular college by college analysis of the US higher learning system, which is precisely what the WSJ has done, breaking down some 3500 colleges and universities by annual cost, graduation rate, median amount borrowed and most importantly, student-loan default rate. In this context we feel quite bad for the students who graduate from ICPR Junior College of Puerto Rico (or rather the 52% of them who graduate), with a modest $2,250 in student loans to cover the otherwise manageable tuition of $7,158, as a mindboggling 62% of them end up defaulting on their loans!

After witnessing the fighting of undeclared never ending wars, passage of freedom destroying legislation like the Patriot Act & NDAA, approval of pork barrel spending to the tune of hundreds of billions, rule by Executive Order, using ZIRP to extract hundreds of billions from senior citizen savers and give it to criminal Wall Street banks, forcing the American people at gunpoint to replenish the Wall Street banks with $700 billion after they had committed the greatest financial fraud in history, and a continuing trampling of the U.S. Constitution, the American people continue to remain willfully ignorant of the truth. The American Dream is dead. We’ve allowed a rich, privileged, elite few to achieve hegemony over our economic and political system with their control of the media and manipulation of our financial markets. They will collapse the country because they will never be satisfied with the amount of wealth and power they’ve accumulated. Their voracious greed will be their downfall.

The 'deal' is done and even the evening news seems somewhat perplexed by the market's excited reaction to three-quarters of the nation paying more taxes. Perhaps, as ABC News highlights below, it is the 'pork' that stuffed the bill... "The mix of tax perks covering the next year, with budget implications for the next two years, includes everything from incentives for employers to hire veterans to incentives for employers to invest in mine safety. But it also includes these:"

Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.

Why Do We Write Again and Again About SOPA?  Because It Would Kill the Internet and Free Speech ...

From FRBNY's Bill Dudley "the big banks in the United States have been able to raise a large amount of equity capital to put themselves in a stronger position. I believe that Federal Reserve actions over the last year and a half have contributed very substantially to this improvement." No doubt. Also, "the Fed and Treasury did not intervene during the recent crisis to save the financial system (and with it, some big financial firms) for its own sake. We intervened because a collapse of the financial system would have done irreparable harm to Main Street." Not to mention banker direct deposit arrangements. Oh, and game over Puerto Rico: "Over the past ten years, the [New York Fed] Alliance has trained more than 400 [Puerto Rican] high school teachers in economics and financial literacy."